TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13075222
Played Sep 4Finished
Dawid Michna
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
13116111214119811
Adam Dosz
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:08 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeAdam Dosz to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Adam Dosz below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 106 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Adam Dosz at 65.7%
106 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 4–5 Adam Dosz Dawid Michna has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:08What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dosz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1987 vs Dosz 1913
Michna
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 60% vs Dosz 20%
Michna
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 40% vs Dosz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -1 · Dosz -3
Dosz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dosz) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dosz form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 2.10 / Dosz 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Dosz)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13075222
Michna2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 119 of 225
Down 0–1, comes back37% 44 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back14% 7 of 49
Dosz1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 74 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMichna4wins
AwayDosz5wins
3 of 9 to a deciderDosz leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna50%3 of 6
AwayDosz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna6Dosz3n = 9Michna took 6 of 9
S2Michna1Dosz8n = 9Dosz took 8 of 9
S3Michna4Dosz5n = 9Dosz took 5 of 9
S4Michna6Dosz2n = 8Michna took 6 of 8
S5Michna1Dosz2n = 3Dosz took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricMichnaDoszM − DBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match39.442.1−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaDoszBasisWin rate · lifetime532 / 977 vs 173 / 30054.5%57.7%532 / 977 vs 173 / 300Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DoszMichna 2.10/Dosz 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Dosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dosz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna—121111113A. Dosz—1013771
LSep 3 · 12:55D. Michna—74140A. Dosz—1111163
LSep 3 · 03:25D. Michna—711121152A. Dosz—1113109113
LOct 19 · 08:50D. Michna—113881A. Dosz—81111113
WOct 18 · 15:10D. Michna—10101113113A. Dosz—121241182
WOct 18 · 06:15D. Michna—11711113A. Dosz—911991
LOct 17 · 10:00D. Michna—125971A. Dosz—101111113
WOct 17 · 04:40D. Michna—11118113A. Dosz—791181
LAug 29 · 06:15D. Michna—11771142A. Dosz—711116113
D. Michna10
LSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:55A. Grela1.6112611642D. Michna2.201011911113WSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480LSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771LSep 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.831112115123D. Michna1.83914911102WSep 4 · 04:55A. Grela1.738770D. Michna2.001111113LSep 4 · 03:25S. Dosz2.2511311113D. Michna1.57911491LSep 3 · 13:45P. David1.4413711143D. Michna2.6311113121
A. Dosz10
LSep 4 · 14:35K. Kolodziej2.751181011113A. Dosz1.4061112752LSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172LSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:00A. Grela2.6351161162A. Dosz1.44116119113LSep 4 · 08:05A. Grela2.00811115113A. Dosz1.7311981192LSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771LSep 4 · 05:15S. Dosz2.0081111113A. Dosz1.73118871WSep 4 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.83811871A. Dosz1.8311811113WSep 4 · 03:00A. Wiecek2.00951151A. Dosz1.7311118113WSep 3 · 14:35A. Dosz1.5711911113S. Dosz2.25811691
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