TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070559
Played Sep 4Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811118811711––
Adam Dosz
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Dosz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Adam Dosz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Adam Dosz at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 16–21 Adam Dosz Marcin Jadczyk has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Dosz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-21 in 37
Dosz
Correct
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1888 vs Dosz 1968
Dosz
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 40% vs Dosz 80%
Dosz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 50% vs Dosz 70%
Dosz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk -3 · Dosz +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dosz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dosz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.83 / Dosz 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dosz)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13070559
Jadczyk1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Dosz1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk4wins
AwayDosz6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDosz leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk66.7%4 of 6
AwayDosz100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk6Dosz4n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S2Jadczyk4Dosz6n = 10Dosz took 6 of 10
S3Jadczyk3Dosz7n = 10Dosz took 7 of 10
S4Jadczyk5Dosz3n = 8Jadczyk took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykDoszJ − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.139.4−2.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykDoszBasisWin rate · lifetime979 / 1671 vs 171 / 29358.6%58.4%979 / 1671 vs 171 / 293Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DoszJadczyk 1.83/Dosz 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dosz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 13:20M. Jadczyk—11671162A. Dosz—711118113
WAug 28 · 07:45M. Jadczyk—12118113A. Dosz—1051181
LAug 23 · 07:45M. Jadczyk—621151A. Dosz—11118113
WMay 3 · 14:05M. Jadczyk—11411113A. Dosz—811781
LMay 3 · 04:40M. Jadczyk—1311991A. Dosz—15611113
LMar 23 · 12:35M. Jadczyk—9890A. Dosz—1111113
WMar 23 · 06:25M. Jadczyk—131413133A. Dosz—111215111
WMar 22 · 14:40M. Jadczyk—11118113A. Dosz—981181
LMar 22 · 08:40M. Jadczyk—11811692A. Dosz—611411113
LMar 22 · 06:05M. Jadczyk—5780A. Dosz—1111113
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282WSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113LSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182LSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113WSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 07:45S. Dosz2.38891161M. Jadczyk1.5311116113
A. Dosz10
WSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 14:35K. Kolodziej2.751181011113A. Dosz1.4061112752LSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172LSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:00A. Grela2.6351161162A. Dosz1.44116119113LSep 4 · 08:05A. Grela2.00811115113A. Dosz1.7311981192LSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771LSep 4 · 05:15S. Dosz2.0081111113A. Dosz1.73118871WSep 4 · 03:00A. Wiecek2.00951151A. Dosz1.7311118113WSep 3 · 14:35A. Dosz1.5711911113S. Dosz2.25811691
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