TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070627
Played Sep 4Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11891112101311––
Adam Dosz
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Dosz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Adam Dosz below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 85 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Adam Dosz at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 16–21 Adam Dosz Marcin Jadczyk has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Dosz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-21 in 37
Dosz
Wrong
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1910 vs Dosz 1945
Dosz
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 60% vs Dosz 40%
Jadczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 50% vs Dosz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk +2 · Dosz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dosz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dosz form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.83 / Dosz 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dosz)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13070627
Jadczyk1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Dosz1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk4wins
AwayDosz6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDosz leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk66.7%4 of 6
AwayDosz100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk6Dosz4n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S2Jadczyk4Dosz6n = 10Dosz took 6 of 10
S3Jadczyk3Dosz7n = 10Dosz took 7 of 10
S4Jadczyk5Dosz3n = 8Jadczyk took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykDoszJ − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.139.4−2.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykDoszBasisWin rate · lifetime982 / 1675 vs 173 / 29858.6%58.1%982 / 1675 vs 173 / 298Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DoszJadczyk 1.83/Dosz 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 13:20M. Jadczyk—11671162A. Dosz—711118113
WAug 28 · 07:45M. Jadczyk—12118113A. Dosz—1051181
LAug 23 · 07:45M. Jadczyk—621151A. Dosz—11118113
WMay 3 · 14:05M. Jadczyk—11411113A. Dosz—811781
LMay 3 · 04:40M. Jadczyk—1311991A. Dosz—15611113
LMar 23 · 12:35M. Jadczyk—9890A. Dosz—1111113
WMar 23 · 06:25M. Jadczyk—131413133A. Dosz—111215111
WMar 22 · 14:40M. Jadczyk—11118113A. Dosz—981181
LMar 22 · 08:40M. Jadczyk—11811692A. Dosz—611411113
LMar 22 · 06:05M. Jadczyk—5780A. Dosz—1111113
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282WSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113LSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182LSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113WSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 07:45S. Dosz2.38891161M. Jadczyk1.5311116113LSep 4 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.9111511113M. Jadczyk1.80911581
A. Dosz10
WSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 14:35K. Kolodziej2.751181011113A. Dosz1.4061112752LSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172WSep 4 · 10:00A. Grela2.6351161162A. Dosz1.44116119113LSep 4 · 08:05A. Grela2.00811115113A. Dosz1.7311981192LSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771LSep 4 · 05:15S. Dosz2.0081111113A. Dosz1.73118871WSep 4 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.83811871A. Dosz1.8311811113WSep 4 · 03:00A. Wiecek2.00951151A. Dosz1.7311118113WSep 3 · 14:35A. Dosz1.5711911113S. Dosz2.25811691
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