TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070578
Played Sep 4Finished
Dawid Michna
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101113117117––
Adam Dosz
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Dosz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Adam Dosz below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 82 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Adam Dosz at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 4–6 Adam Dosz Dawid Michna has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:39What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Michna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Dosz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1958 vs Dosz 1941
Michna
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 20% vs Dosz 80%
Dosz
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 30% vs Dosz 70%
Dosz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -1 · Dosz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dosz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dosz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 1.80 / Dosz 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dosz)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13070578
Michna1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 84 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it100% 36 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it77% 65 of 84
Dosz1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog50% won 12 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back22% 2 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna4wins
AwayDosz6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDosz leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna42.9%3 of 7
AwayDosz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna7Dosz3n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S2Michna1Dosz9n = 10Dosz took 9 of 10
S3Michna4Dosz6n = 10Dosz took 6 of 10
S4Michna7Dosz2n = 9Michna took 7 of 9
S5Michna1Dosz3n = 4Dosz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaDoszM − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.543.5−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaDoszBasisWin rate · lifetime528 / 968 vs 174 / 30254.6%57.6%528 / 968 vs 174 / 302Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DoszMichna 1.80/Dosz 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna—136121182A. Dosz—1111149113
WSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna—121111113A. Dosz—1013771
LSep 3 · 12:55D. Michna—74140A. Dosz—1111163
LSep 3 · 03:25D. Michna—711121152A. Dosz—1113109113
LOct 19 · 08:50D. Michna—113881A. Dosz—81111113
WOct 18 · 15:10D. Michna—10101113113A. Dosz—121241182
WOct 18 · 06:15D. Michna—11711113A. Dosz—911991
LOct 17 · 10:00D. Michna—125971A. Dosz—101111113
WOct 17 · 04:40D. Michna—11118113A. Dosz—791181
LAug 29 · 06:15D. Michna—11771142A. Dosz—711116113
D. Michna10
LSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:55A. Grela1.6112611642D. Michna2.201011911113WSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480LSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113LSep 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.831112115123D. Michna1.83914911102WSep 4 · 04:55A. Grela1.738770D. Michna2.001111113LSep 4 · 03:25S. Dosz2.2511311113D. Michna1.57911491LSep 3 · 13:45P. David1.4413711143D. Michna2.6311113121
A. Dosz10
WSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 14:35K. Kolodziej2.751181011113A. Dosz1.4061112752LSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172LSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:00A. Grela2.6351161162A. Dosz1.44116119113LSep 4 · 08:05A. Grela2.00811115113A. Dosz1.7311981192LSep 4 · 05:15S. Dosz2.0081111113A. Dosz1.73118871WSep 4 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.83811871A. Dosz1.8311811113WSep 4 · 03:00A. Wiecek2.00951151A. Dosz1.7311118113WSep 3 · 14:35A. Dosz1.5711911113S. Dosz2.25811691
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.