TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070574
Played Sep 4Finished
Dawid Michna
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119114118––––
Krystian Kolodziej
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Michna to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Krystian Kolodziej below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 54 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Dawid Michna at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 15–8 Krystian Kolodziej Krystian Kolodziej has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:38What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Michna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-8 in 23
Michna
Correct
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1949 vs Kolodziej 1843
Michna
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 60% vs Kolodziej 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 30% vs Kolodziej 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -1 · Kolodziej +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Michna) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 1.67 / Kolodziej 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Michna)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13070574
Michna1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 84 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 65 of 85
Kolodziej2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 68 of 196
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna8wins
AwayKolodziej2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna100%5 of 5
AwayKolodziej40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna5Kolodziej5n = 10split evenly
S2Michna6Kolodziej4n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Michna4Kolodziej6n = 10Kolodziej took 6 of 10
S4Michna6Kolodziej3n = 9Michna took 6 of 9
S5Michna5Kolodziej0n = 5Michna took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaKolodziejM − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.941.5+4.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaKolodziejBasisWin rate · lifetime531 / 978 vs 1326 / 196954.3%67.3%531 / 978 vs 1326 / 1969Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichnaMichna 1.67/Kolodziej 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.2%
Michna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 7 · 24:40D. Michna—111113113K. Kolodziej—871571
LApr 6 · 22:15D. Michna—941181K. Kolodziej—11116113
LApr 6 · 19:25D. Michna—1211761K. Kolodziej—14811113
WFeb 20 · 18:00D. Michna—12911113K. Kolodziej—1011891
WNov 22 · 17:25D. Michna—119914153K. Kolodziej—6111112132
WNov 2 · 16:35D. Michna—1114911113K. Kolodziej—131211572
WOct 18 · 14:30D. Michna—511911113K. Kolodziej—11611722
WOct 18 · 07:40D. Michna—1111177103K. Kolodziej—913151192
WSep 7 · 16:45D. Michna—1111143K. Kolodziej—75120
WSep 3 · 19:25D. Michna—911711113K. Kolodziej—11611732
D. Michna10
LSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:55A. Grela1.6112611642D. Michna2.201011911113LSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771LSep 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.831112115123D. Michna1.83914911102WSep 4 · 04:55A. Grela1.738770D. Michna2.001111113LSep 4 · 03:25S. Dosz2.2511311113D. Michna1.57911491LSep 3 · 13:45P. David1.4413711143D. Michna2.6311113121
K. Kolodziej10
LSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592WSep 4 · 20:05P. Jendrzejewski2.63471291K. Kolodziej1.44111110113WSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:55T. Filbrandt2.63116110K. Kolodziej1.441311133WSep 4 · 15:45A. Grela1.61116100K. Kolodziej2.201311123WSep 4 · 14:35K. Kolodziej2.751181011113A. Dosz1.4061112752WSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113WSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113WSep 3 · 14:10A. Wiecek1.339980K. Kolodziej3.251111113
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