TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13073792
Played Sep 4Finished
Krystian Kolodziej
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311116111––––
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:29 and never touched — 68.3% is still 68.3%
Graded at full timeKrystian Kolodziej to win
68.3%
68.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrystian Kolodziej above · Mateusz Rutkowski below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-1
Point 53 set 3, 11-1 — our read held Krystian Kolodziej at 68.3%
53 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Kolodziej 68–10 Mateusz Rutkowski Mateusz Rutkowski has won 10 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:29What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kolodziej
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
68-10 in 78
Kolodziej
Correct
gap of 58 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolodziej 1887 vs Rutkowski 1633
Kolodziej
Correct
both rated, 253 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolodziej 100% vs Rutkowski 60%
Kolodziej
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolodziej 70% vs Rutkowski 30%
Kolodziej
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolodziej +5 · Rutkowski +1
Kolodziej
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Kolodziej) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolodziej 1.36 / Rutkowski 3.00
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Kolodziej)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13073792
Kolodziej1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite76% won 518 of 682
Up 2–0, closes it98% 321 of 328
Up 1–0, closes it88% 423 of 483
Rutkowski3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 167 of 384
Down 0–1, comes back22% 47 of 216
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolodziej9wins
AwayRutkowski1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKolodziej leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolodziej87.5%7 of 8
AwayRutkowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolodziej8Rutkowski2n = 10Kolodziej took 8 of 10
S2Kolodziej7Rutkowski3n = 10Kolodziej took 7 of 10
S3Kolodziej6Rutkowski4n = 10Kolodziej took 6 of 10
S4Kolodziej6Rutkowski2n = 8Kolodziej took 6 of 8
S5Kolodziej2Rutkowski1n = 3Kolodziej took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolodziejRutkowskiK − RBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.932.8+8.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolodziejRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1329 / 1971 vs 763 / 136267.4%56%1329 / 1971 vs 763 / 1362Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolodziejKolodziej 1.36/Rutkowski 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.1%
Kolodziej · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolodziej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 22 · 23:35K. Kolodziej—1111113M. Rutkowski—6620
WJun 22 · 21:20K. Kolodziej—91112113M. Rutkowski—1181091
WJun 22 · 17:40K. Kolodziej—12411113M. Rutkowski—1011981
WJun 21 · 20:05K. Kolodziej—111011113M. Rutkowski—312721
LJun 17 · 01:10K. Kolodziej—11113882M. Rutkowski—551111113
WJun 16 · 22:50K. Kolodziej—41111113M. Rutkowski—118311
WJun 16 · 20:05K. Kolodziej—111294123M. Rutkowski—6101111102
WJun 13 · 17:30K. Kolodziej—128811113M. Rutkowski—101111492
WJun 9 · 17:00K. Kolodziej—1111113M. Rutkowski—3960
WJun 8 · 20:10K. Kolodziej—12119113M. Rutkowski—1071191
K. Kolodziej10
LSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592WSep 4 · 20:05P. Jendrzejewski2.63471291K. Kolodziej1.44111110113WSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:55T. Filbrandt2.63116110K. Kolodziej1.441311133WSep 4 · 15:45A. Grela1.61116100K. Kolodziej2.201311123WSep 4 · 14:35K. Kolodziej2.751181011113A. Dosz1.4061112752WSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113LSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480WSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113WSep 3 · 14:10A. Wiecek1.339980K. Kolodziej3.251111113
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380LSep 4 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.801111113M. Rutkowski1.919550WSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:05T. Filbrandt2.101191171M. Rutkowski1.6771113113LSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113WSep 3 · 22:55J. Glanowski3.75121050M. Rutkowski1.251412113
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