TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13073789
Played Sep 4Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117113118––––
Tomasz Filbrandt
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomasz Filbrandt to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Tomasz Filbrandt below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 51 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Tomasz Filbrandt at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 23–19 Tomasz Filbrandt Tomasz Filbrandt has won 19 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:28What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-19 in 42
Rutkowski
Correct
gap of 4 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1621 vs Filbrandt 1657
Filbrandt
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 40% vs Filbrandt 60%
Filbrandt
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 40% vs Filbrandt 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski -1 · Filbrandt +3
Filbrandt
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.73 / Filbrandt 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Rutkowski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13073789
Rutkowski1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 381 of 552
Up 2–0, closes it96% 184 of 191
Up 1–0, closes it88% 306 of 346
Filbrandt2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 58 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski8wins
AwayFilbrandt2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski100%5 of 5
AwayFilbrandt50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski5Filbrandt4n = 9Rutkowski took 5 of 9
S2Rutkowski5Filbrandt4n = 9Rutkowski took 5 of 9
S3Rutkowski7Filbrandt2n = 9Rutkowski took 7 of 9
S4Rutkowski3Filbrandt3n = 6split evenly
S5Rutkowski3Filbrandt0n = 3Rutkowski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiFilbrandtR − FBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match39.937.0+2.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiFilbrandtBasisWin rate · lifetime764 / 1365 vs 677 / 126356%53.6%764 / 1365 vs 677 / 1263Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.73/Filbrandt 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJul 5 · 15:25M. Rutkowski—1111113T. Filbrandt—5970
LApr 29 · 24:40M. Rutkowski—71110101T. Filbrandt—11312123
WApr 28 · 22:15M. Rutkowski—841116123T. Filbrandt—1111814102
WApr 21 · 23:50M. Rutkowski—1113123T. Filbrandt—711100
WApr 21 · 21:30M. Rutkowski—157711113T. Filbrandt—131111862
WApr 21 · 20:35M. Rutkowski—711119123T. Filbrandt—117811102
WApr 7 · 23:25M. Rutkowski—111011113T. Filbrandt—912561
LApr 7 · 21:05M. Rutkowski—271141T. Filbrandt—11118113
WApr 4 · 17:55M. Rutkowski—1111113T. Filbrandt—9770
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680LSep 4 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.801111113M. Rutkowski1.919550WSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961LSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 18:05T. Filbrandt2.101191171M. Rutkowski1.6771113113LSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113WSep 3 · 22:55J. Glanowski3.75121050M. Rutkowski1.251412113
T. Filbrandt10
WSep 5 · 23:20A. Wos2.38101115572T. Filbrandt1.531291311113LSep 5 · 22:35P. Jendrzejewski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008980WSep 5 · 22:10T. Filbrandt1.67119124113F. Mlynarski2.10411101172WSep 5 · 21:00D. Jadam2.0091490T. Filbrandt1.731116113WSep 5 · 20:30T. Filbrandt1.5711711113A. Wos2.25711691WSep 5 · 18:50T. Filbrandt1.83121177123P. Jendrzejewski1.831071111102LSep 5 · 17:40T. Filbrandt1.83511761F. Mlynarski1.8311911113LSep 5 · 16:05T. Filbrandt2.251111781J. Kuzmicz1.5791311103LSep 5 · 15:00T. Filbrandt1.7361111952D. Jadam2.00113711113LSep 4 · 18:05T. Filbrandt2.101191171M. Rutkowski1.6771113113
Upcoming Matches
M. Rutkowski
T. Filbrandt
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