TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13073791
Played Sep 4Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121210119116––
Maciej Kolek
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:29 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 81 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 60.2%
81 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 23–20 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 20 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:29What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-20 in 43
Rutkowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1624 vs Kolek 1640
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 60% vs Kolek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 30% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski -1 · Kolek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.57 / Kolek 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Rutkowski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13073791
Rutkowski1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 381 of 552
Up 2–0, closes it96% 184 of 191
Up 1–0, closes it88% 306 of 346
Kolek2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 185 of 476
Down 0–1, comes back21% 58 of 283
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 134
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski7wins
AwayKolek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski87.5%7 of 8
AwayKolekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski8Kolek2n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S2Rutkowski5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S3Rutkowski7Kolek3n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S4Rutkowski1Kolek5n = 6Kolek took 5 of 6
S5Rutkowski3Kolek1n = 4Rutkowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiKolekR − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.334.4+3.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime763 / 1363 vs 677 / 136556%49.6%763 / 1363 vs 677 / 1365Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.57/Kolek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 2 · 17:00M. Rutkowski—1110119113M. Kolek—41271162
WJul 2 · 16:30M. Rutkowski—1110119113M. Kolek—41271162
WJun 24 · 01:10M. Rutkowski—11811113M. Kolek—511761
WJun 23 · 22:50M. Rutkowski—1111113M. Kolek—8860
WJun 14 · 16:25M. Rutkowski—1111113M. Kolek—9360
LJun 13 · 20:15M. Rutkowski—9690M. Kolek—1111113
WMay 28 · 01:30M. Rutkowski—111156113M. Kolek—96111192
LMay 27 · 23:00M. Rutkowski—91111682M. Kolek—116911113
WApr 30 · 19:00M. Rutkowski—1111113M. Kolek—9980
LApr 22 · 01:30M. Rutkowski—114471M. Kolek—91111113
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380LSep 4 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.801111113M. Rutkowski1.919550LSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 18:05T. Filbrandt2.101191171M. Rutkowski1.6771113113LSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113WSep 3 · 22:55J. Glanowski3.75121050M. Rutkowski1.251412113
M. Kolek10
WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113LSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.6189111172M. Kolek2.20111167113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113WSep 3 · 23:45J. Glanowski2.2561060M. Kolek1.571112113
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