TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13073966
Played Sep 4Finished
Tomasz Filbrandt
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117411114119––
Maciej Kolek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomasz Filbrandt above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 68 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Tomasz Filbrandt 6–3 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:03What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Filbrandt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Filbrandt
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filbrandt 1633 vs Kolek 1627
Filbrandt
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filbrandt 40% vs Kolek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filbrandt 50% vs Kolek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Filbrandt +2 · Kolek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Filbrandt) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filbrandt form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilbrandt 1.67 / Kolek 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Filbrandt)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13073966
Filbrandt1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 146 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it97% 56 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it79% 97 of 123
Kolek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 185 of 476
Down 0–1, comes back21% 58 of 283
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 134
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeFilbrandt6wins
AwayKolek3wins
4 of 9 to a deciderFilbrandt leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilbrandt66.7%4 of 6
AwayKolek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filbrandt6Kolek3n = 9Filbrandt took 6 of 9
S2Filbrandt4Kolek5n = 9Kolek took 5 of 9
S3Filbrandt3Kolek6n = 9Kolek took 6 of 9
S4Filbrandt5Kolek3n = 8Filbrandt took 5 of 8
S5Filbrandt3Kolek1n = 4Filbrandt took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricFilbrandtKolekF − KBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match41.239.4+1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilbrandtKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime676 / 1262 vs 677 / 136653.6%49.6%676 / 1262 vs 677 / 1366Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilbrandtFilbrandt 1.67/Kolek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.2%
Filbrandt · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Filbrandt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJul 5 · 23:35T. Filbrandt—11711113M. Kolek—811981
WJul 5 · 21:20T. Filbrandt—111166113M. Kolek—78111162
LJul 4 · 23:55T. Filbrandt—145961M. Kolek—121111113
LJul 4 · 21:45T. Filbrandt—11881172M. Kolek—611118113
WJul 4 · 18:50T. Filbrandt—91111133M. Kolek—1145111
LJun 28 · 17:45T. Filbrandt—6880M. Kolek—1111113
WApr 22 · 24:40T. Filbrandt—11311113M. Kolek—811571
WApr 21 · 22:15T. Filbrandt—1111810113M. Kolek—96111292
WJan 4 · 22:10T. Filbrandt—8111111133M. Kolek—113134112
T. Filbrandt10
WSep 5 · 23:20A. Wos2.38101115572T. Filbrandt1.531291311113LSep 5 · 22:35P. Jendrzejewski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008980WSep 5 · 22:10T. Filbrandt1.67119124113F. Mlynarski2.10411101172WSep 5 · 21:00D. Jadam2.0091490T. Filbrandt1.731116113WSep 5 · 20:30T. Filbrandt1.5711711113A. Wos2.25711691WSep 5 · 18:50T. Filbrandt1.83121177123P. Jendrzejewski1.831071111102LSep 5 · 17:40T. Filbrandt1.83511761F. Mlynarski1.8311911113LSep 5 · 16:05T. Filbrandt2.251111781J. Kuzmicz1.5791311103LSep 5 · 15:00T. Filbrandt1.7361111952D. Jadam2.00113711113LSep 5 · 01:30J. Kuzmicz1.50111188113T. Filbrandt2.5048111192
M. Kolek10
WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113LSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.6189111172M. Kolek2.20111167113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113WSep 3 · 23:45J. Glanowski2.2561060M. Kolek1.571112113
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