TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13073785
Played Sep 5Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8118111210118611
Jakub Kuzmicz
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 96 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 55.1%
96 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 12–24 Jakub Kuzmicz Maciej Kolek has won 12 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:27What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kuzmicz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-24 in 36
Kuzmicz
Correct
gap of 12 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1607 vs Kuzmicz 1800
Kuzmicz
Correct
both rated, 193 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 40% vs Kuzmicz 60%
Kuzmicz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 40% vs Kuzmicz 80%
Kuzmicz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +1 · Kuzmicz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kuzmicz) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 3.00 / Kuzmicz 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Kuzmicz)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13073785
Kolek3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 185 of 476
Down 0–1, comes back21% 58 of 283
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 134
Kuzmicz1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 421 of 684
Up 2–0, closes it98% 171 of 175
Up 1–0, closes it81% 290 of 357
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek2wins
AwayKuzmicz8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek0%0 of 3
AwayKuzmicz71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek3Kuzmicz7n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S2Kolek3Kuzmicz7n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S3Kolek3Kuzmicz7n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S4Kolek5Kuzmicz2n = 7Kolek took 5 of 7
S5Kolek0Kuzmicz3n = 3Kuzmicz took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekKuzmiczKolek − KuzmiczBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.542.5−6.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime678 / 1369 vs 650 / 113049.5%57.5%678 / 1369 vs 650 / 1130Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmiczKolek 3.00/Kuzmicz 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.8%
Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kuzmicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 13:50M. Kolek—111613113J. Kuzmicz—13141181
LAug 23 · 18:30M. Kolek—6111061J. Kuzmicz—11512113
LAug 20 · 22:10M. Kolek—11691122J. Kuzmicz—711118113
LAug 19 · 22:55M. Kolek—4860J. Kuzmicz—1111113
LAug 14 · 23:55M. Kolek—13881542J. Kuzmicz—11111113113
WAug 7 · 24:35M. Kolek—81115123J. Kuzmicz—11913101
LAug 5 · 18:50M. Kolek—14691192J. Kuzmicz—1211116113
LAug 4 · 23:20M. Kolek—10840J. Kuzmicz—1211113
LJul 25 · 19:15M. Kolek—4880J. Kuzmicz—1111113
LJul 25 · 01:10M. Kolek—1191181J. Kuzmicz—13116113
M. Kolek10
WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491LSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113LSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.6189111172M. Kolek2.20111167113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113WSep 3 · 23:45J. Glanowski2.2561060M. Kolek1.571112113
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.401110961J. Kuzmicz1.3091211113WSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123WSep 6 · 17:20D. Jadam2.3881141172J. Kuzmicz1.53117118113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.75139144113J. Kuzmicz1.401111121162WSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113LSep 5 · 19:40J. Kuzmicz1.731013691P. Jendrzejewski2.00121111113LSep 5 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.5091171172F. Mlynarski2.50118119113WSep 5 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.5711118113D. Jadam2.25661171WSep 5 · 16:05T. Filbrandt2.251111781J. Kuzmicz1.5791311103WSep 5 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.22911116113A. Wos4.0011991192
Upcoming Matches
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J. Kuzmicz1 of 1 neutral
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