TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13078437
Played Sep 5Finished
Tomasz Filbrandt
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191113711810––
Jakub Kuzmicz
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomasz Filbrandt above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-10
Point 80 set 4, 8-10 — our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 61.8%
80 points played in total.
H2H Tomasz Filbrandt 5–9 Jakub Kuzmicz Tomasz Filbrandt has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:03What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kuzmicz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Kuzmicz
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filbrandt 1619 vs Kuzmicz 1780
Kuzmicz
Correct
both rated, 161 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filbrandt 0% vs Kuzmicz 80%
Kuzmicz
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filbrandt 30% vs Kuzmicz 80%
Kuzmicz
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Filbrandt -5 · Kuzmicz +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Kuzmicz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilbrandt 2.25 / Kuzmicz 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kuzmicz)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13078437
Filbrandt2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 60 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 57
Kuzmicz1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 419 of 678
Up 2–0, closes it98% 172 of 176
Up 1–0, closes it82% 290 of 356
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilbrandt4wins
AwayKuzmicz6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilbrandt80%4 of 5
AwayKuzmicz100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filbrandt5Kuzmicz5n = 10split evenly
S2Filbrandt5Kuzmicz5n = 10split evenly
S3Filbrandt1Kuzmicz9n = 10Kuzmicz took 9 of 10
S4Filbrandt3Kuzmicz4n = 7Kuzmicz took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilbrandtKuzmiczF − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.536.7−4.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilbrandtKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime677 / 1268 vs 653 / 113353.4%57.6%677 / 1268 vs 653 / 1133Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.240.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmiczFilbrandt 2.25/Kuzmicz 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kuzmicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 18:50T. Filbrandt—116491J. Kuzmicz—71111113
LAug 14 · 24:35T. Filbrandt—1011751J. Kuzmicz—12411113
LAug 7 · 17:40T. Filbrandt—4590J. Kuzmicz—1111103
WAug 1 · 19:15T. Filbrandt—13117113J. Kuzmicz—1191151
LJul 25 · 23:55T. Filbrandt—815531J. Kuzmicz—111311113
LJul 25 · 21:45T. Filbrandt—6680J. Kuzmicz—1111113
WJul 17 · 21:00T. Filbrandt—11812113J. Kuzmicz—5111091
WJul 16 · 23:35T. Filbrandt—1111811113J. Kuzmicz—86111372
WJul 16 · 21:20T. Filbrandt—11112113J. Kuzmicz—791121
LJul 4 · 16:30T. Filbrandt—7780J. Kuzmicz—1111113
T. Filbrandt10
WSep 5 · 23:20A. Wos2.38101115572T. Filbrandt1.531291311113LSep 5 · 22:35P. Jendrzejewski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008980WSep 5 · 22:10T. Filbrandt1.67119124113F. Mlynarski2.10411101172WSep 5 · 21:00D. Jadam2.0091490T. Filbrandt1.731116113WSep 5 · 20:30T. Filbrandt1.5711711113A. Wos2.25711691WSep 5 · 18:50T. Filbrandt1.83121177123P. Jendrzejewski1.831071111102LSep 5 · 17:40T. Filbrandt1.83511761F. Mlynarski1.8311911113LSep 5 · 15:00T. Filbrandt1.7361111952D. Jadam2.00113711113LSep 5 · 01:30J. Kuzmicz1.50111188113T. Filbrandt2.5048111192LSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.401110961J. Kuzmicz1.3091211113WSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123WSep 6 · 17:20D. Jadam2.3881141172J. Kuzmicz1.53117118113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.75139144113J. Kuzmicz1.401111121162WSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113LSep 5 · 19:40J. Kuzmicz1.731013691P. Jendrzejewski2.00121111113LSep 5 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.5091171172F. Mlynarski2.50118119113WSep 5 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.5711118113D. Jadam2.25661171WSep 5 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.22911116113A. Wos4.0011991192WSep 5 · 01:30J. Kuzmicz1.50111188113T. Filbrandt2.5048111192
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