TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13078433
Played Sep 5Finished
Tomasz Filbrandt
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1149111210411117
Filip Mlynarski
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:59 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeFilip Mlynarski to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomasz Filbrandt above · Filip Mlynarski below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 90 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Filip Mlynarski at 54.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Tomasz Filbrandt 13–17 Filip Mlynarski Tomasz Filbrandt has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:59What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Filbrandt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-17 in 30
Mlynarski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filbrandt 1639 vs Mlynarski 1744
Mlynarski
Wrong
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filbrandt 60% vs Mlynarski 80%
Mlynarski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filbrandt 40% vs Mlynarski 70%
Mlynarski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Filbrandt +3 · Mlynarski +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Filbrandt) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mlynarski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilbrandt 1.67 / Mlynarski 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Filbrandt)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13078433
Filbrandt1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 147 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it97% 56 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it79% 98 of 124
Mlynarski2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog28% won 18 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilbrandt3wins
AwayMlynarski7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMlynarski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilbrandtn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMlynarski75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filbrandt2Mlynarski8n = 10Mlynarski took 8 of 10
S2Filbrandt6Mlynarski4n = 10Filbrandt took 6 of 10
S3Filbrandt6Mlynarski4n = 10Filbrandt took 6 of 10
S4Filbrandt1Mlynarski8n = 9Mlynarski took 8 of 9
S5Filbrandt2Mlynarski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilbrandtMlynarskiF − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.942.6−5.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilbrandtMlynarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime680 / 1273 vs 161 / 28253.4%57.1%680 / 1273 vs 161 / 282Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilbrandtFilbrandt 1.67/Mlynarski 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Filbrandt · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Filbrandt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 17:40T. Filbrandt—511761F. Mlynarski—11911113
LAug 2 · 24:10T. Filbrandt—7101391F. Mlynarski—111211113
WAug 1 · 18:05T. Filbrandt—712125113F. Mlynarski—1110101192
LJul 27 · 24:45T. Filbrandt—31511192F. Mlynarski—1113911113
WJul 26 · 22:30T. Filbrandt—81112113F. Mlynarski—1141081
LJul 26 · 20:30T. Filbrandt—5970F. Mlynarski—1111113
LJul 26 · 01:10T. Filbrandt—118691F. Mlynarski—61111113
WJul 25 · 22:50T. Filbrandt—117116113F. Mlynarski—71171182
LJul 6 · 24:45T. Filbrandt—311781F. Mlynarski—11411113
LJul 5 · 22:30T. Filbrandt—51211692F. Mlynarski—1110411113
T. Filbrandt10
WSep 5 · 23:20A. Wos2.38101115572T. Filbrandt1.531291311113LSep 5 · 22:35P. Jendrzejewski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008980WSep 5 · 21:00D. Jadam2.0091490T. Filbrandt1.731116113WSep 5 · 20:30T. Filbrandt1.5711711113A. Wos2.25711691WSep 5 · 18:50T. Filbrandt1.83121177123P. Jendrzejewski1.831071111102LSep 5 · 17:40T. Filbrandt1.83511761F. Mlynarski1.8311911113LSep 5 · 16:05T. Filbrandt2.251111781J. Kuzmicz1.5791311103LSep 5 · 15:00T. Filbrandt1.7361111952D. Jadam2.00113711113LSep 5 · 01:30J. Kuzmicz1.50111188113T. Filbrandt2.5048111192LSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791
F. Mlynarski10
WSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113LSep 6 · 22:35A. Wos3.25125117113F. Mlynarski1.33101181162LSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123LSep 6 · 21:00D. Jadam1.911311118113F. Mlynarski1.8015941172LSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.40810111192J. Zochniak2.75111254113LSep 6 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.4491311962L. Pietraszko2.631111511113WSep 6 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4411812113D. Jadam2.638111011LSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113WSep 5 · 17:40T. Filbrandt1.83511761F. Mlynarski1.8311911113
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