TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083390
Played Sep 6Finished
Filip Mlynarski
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111311115911611
Lukasz Pietraszko
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched — 61.1% is still 61.1%
Graded at full timeFilip Mlynarski to win
61.1%
61.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFilip Mlynarski above · Lukasz Pietraszko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 97 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Filip Mlynarski at 61.1%
97 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mlynarski 18–9 Lukasz Pietraszko Lukasz Pietraszko has won 9 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:00What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mlynarski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-9 in 27
Mlynarski
Wrong
gap of 9 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mlynarski 1740 vs Pietraszko 1665
Mlynarski
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mlynarski 40% vs Pietraszko 60%
Pietraszko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mlynarski 70% vs Pietraszko 50%
Mlynarski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mlynarski +1 · Pietraszko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Mlynarski) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pietraszko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMlynarski 1.44 / Pietraszko 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Mlynarski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13083390
Mlynarski1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 139 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it96% 73 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 123
Pietraszko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 98 of 261
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMlynarski7wins
AwayPietraszko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMlynarski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMlynarski100%5 of 5
AwayPietraszko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mlynarski5Pietraszko5n = 10split evenly
S2Mlynarski5Pietraszko5n = 10split evenly
S3Mlynarski3Pietraszko7n = 10Pietraszko took 7 of 10
S4Mlynarski7Pietraszko1n = 8Mlynarski took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMlynarskiPietraszkoM − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.336.3+3.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMlynarskiPietraszkoBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 287 vs 427 / 84856.8%50.4%163 / 287 vs 427 / 848Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MlynarskiMlynarski 1.44/Pietraszko 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Mlynarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pietraszko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 21:00F. Mlynarski—1110811113L. Pietraszko—91211492
WAug 16 · 15:00F. Mlynarski—11118113L. Pietraszko—671191
WAug 2 · 21:45F. Mlynarski—14911113L. Pietraszko—1211881
WAug 2 · 16:55F. Mlynarski—118511113L. Pietraszko—61111462
WJul 19 · 18:50F. Mlynarski—11119113L. Pietraszko—781181
WJul 5 · 23:15F. Mlynarski—41111113L. Pietraszko—113871
LJul 5 · 21:00F. Mlynarski—9570L. Pietraszko—1111113
LJul 5 · 17:40F. Mlynarski—6119111L. Pietraszko—11511133
WJun 28 · 23:15F. Mlynarski—81111113L. Pietraszko—116791
LJun 28 · 21:00F. Mlynarski—814100L. Pietraszko—1116123
F. Mlynarski10
WSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113LSep 6 · 22:35A. Wos3.25125117113F. Mlynarski1.33101181162LSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123LSep 6 · 21:00D. Jadam1.911311118113F. Mlynarski1.8015941172LSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.40810111192J. Zochniak2.75111254113WSep 6 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4411812113D. Jadam2.638111011LSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113LSep 6 · 24:35P. Jendrzejewski2.001111123F. Mlynarski1.7396100WSep 5 · 22:55D. Jadam1.7314630F. Mlynarski2.001611113
L. Pietraszko10
WSep 7 · 24:35A. Wos2.201121111102L. Pietraszko1.61811613123LSep 6 · 22:55D. Jadam1.67115811113L. Pietraszko2.1091111792WSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123WSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113LSep 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.401110961J. Kuzmicz1.3091211113WSep 6 · 18:30D. Jadam1.67105120L. Pietraszko2.101211143WSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko1.73961111113J. Zochniak2.0011119562LSep 2 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.67117911153L. Pietraszko2.10811116132WSep 2 · 22:35M. Rutkowski1.449111181L. Pietraszko2.6311137113
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