TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13064017
Played Sep 2Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1187119111161513
Lukasz Pietraszko
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Lukasz Pietraszko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 102 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 1–2 Lukasz Pietraszko Jakub Chmielowski has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:30What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chmielowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1567 vs Pietraszko 1622
Pietraszko
Wrong
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 60% vs Pietraszko 40%
Chmielowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 50% vs Pietraszko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski +1 · Pietraszko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmielowski)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 1.67 / Pietraszko 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmielowski)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13064017
Chmielowski1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 114 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it89% 50 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it72% 91 of 126
Pietraszko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 95 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeChmielowski1wins
AwayPietraszko2wins
Pietraszko leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski2Pietraszko1n = 3Chmielowski took 2 of 3
S2Chmielowski1Pietraszko2n = 3Pietraszko took 2 of 3
S3Chmielowski1Pietraszko2n = 3Pietraszko took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricChmielowskiPietraszkoC − PBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match30.732.0−1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiPietraszkoBasisWin rate · lifetime347 / 711 vs 425 / 84548.8%50.3%347 / 711 vs 425 / 845Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiChmielowski 1.67/Pietraszko 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 2 · 20:30J. Chmielowski—1111113L. Pietraszko—6960
LAug 22 · 21:00J. Chmielowski—9990L. Pietraszko—1111113
LAug 22 · 15:00J. Chmielowski—117681L. Pietraszko—91111113
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520LSep 3 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.381611971J. Kuzmicz1.5318611113
L. Pietraszko10
WSep 7 · 24:35A. Wos2.201121111102L. Pietraszko1.61811613123LSep 6 · 22:55D. Jadam1.67115811113L. Pietraszko2.1091111792WSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123WSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113LSep 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.401110961J. Kuzmicz1.3091211113WSep 6 · 18:30D. Jadam1.67105120L. Pietraszko2.101211143WSep 6 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.4491311962L. Pietraszko2.631111511113WSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko1.73961111113J. Zochniak2.0011119562WSep 2 · 22:35M. Rutkowski1.449111181L. Pietraszko2.6311137113
Upcoming Matches
J. Chmielowski
Nothing scheduled
L. Pietraszko1 of 1 neutral
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