TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065661
Played Sep 3Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1195119111151513
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:30 and never touched — 64.3% is still 64.3%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
64.3%
64.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Mateusz Rutkowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 100 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 64.3%
100 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 6–14 Mateusz Rutkowski Jakub Chmielowski has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:30What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Rutkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-14 in 20
Rutkowski
Wrong
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1581 vs Rutkowski 1593
Rutkowski
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 40% vs Rutkowski 0%
Chmielowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 40% vs Rutkowski 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski +2 · Rutkowski -5
Rutkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (0%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 2.50 / Rutkowski 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Rutkowski)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13065661
Chmielowski2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 72 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Rutkowski1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 381 of 552
Up 2–0, closes it96% 184 of 191
Up 1–0, closes it89% 306 of 345
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmielowski2wins
AwayRutkowski8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmielowski50%2 of 4
AwayRutkowski100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski4Rutkowski6n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S2Chmielowski2Rutkowski8n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S3Chmielowski2Rutkowski8n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S4Chmielowski6Rutkowski1n = 7Chmielowski took 6 of 7
S5Chmielowski1Rutkowski4n = 5Rutkowski took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmielowskiRutkowskiC − RBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.442.8−4.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 720 vs 760 / 135848.8%56%351 / 720 vs 760 / 1358Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiChmielowski 2.50/Rutkowski 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 25 · 24:45J. Chmielowski—913914102M. Rutkowski—11111112123
LMay 24 · 22:20J. Chmielowski—88111282M. Rutkowski—1111710113
LMay 23 · 17:30J. Chmielowski—11991182M. Rutkowski—811116113
LApr 23 · 20:10J. Chmielowski—93110M. Rutkowski—1111133
LApr 17 · 01:30J. Chmielowski—7680M. Rutkowski—1111113
WApr 16 · 23:00J. Chmielowski—119912123M. Rutkowski—7111110102
LFeb 20 · 01:40J. Chmielowski—41080M. Rutkowski—1112113
LFeb 19 · 23:15J. Chmielowski—1112471M. Rutkowski—81411113
WFeb 11 · 01:40J. Chmielowski—11119113M. Rutkowski—691171
LFeb 10 · 23:15J. Chmielowski—67111142M. Rutkowski—111176113
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520LSep 3 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.381611971J. Kuzmicz1.5318611113WSep 2 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.67117911153L. Pietraszko2.10811116132
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380LSep 4 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.801111113M. Rutkowski1.919550WSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961LSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 18:05T. Filbrandt2.101191171M. Rutkowski1.6771113113LSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113
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M. Rutkowski
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