TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065660
Played Sep 3Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1168111412911911
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:31 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 102 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 54.1%
102 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 7–8 Jakub Chmielowski Maciej Kolek has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:31What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chmielowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1606 vs Chmielowski 1606
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 80% vs Chmielowski 60%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 70% vs Chmielowski 50%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -1 · Chmielowski +3
Chmielowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.83 / Chmielowski 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kolek)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13065660
Kolek1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Chmielowski1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek5wins
AwayChmielowski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek66.7%4 of 6
AwayChmielowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek6Chmielowski4n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S2Kolek7Chmielowski3n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S3Kolek4Chmielowski6n = 10Chmielowski took 6 of 10
S4Kolek5Chmielowski3n = 8Kolek took 5 of 8
S5Kolek1Chmielowski3n = 4Chmielowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekChmielowskiK − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.942.3−0.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime674 / 1360 vs 352 / 72149.6%48.8%674 / 1360 vs 352 / 721Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.83/Chmielowski 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 26 · 12:10M. Kolek—1211391J. Chmielowski—14911113
LJun 25 · 08:05M. Kolek—11841572J. Chmielowski—6111113113
LJun 25 · 05:35M. Kolek—114921J. Chmielowski—61111113
WJun 19 · 09:00M. Kolek—61111113J. Chmielowski—115581
WJun 19 · 08:05M. Kolek—1111113J. Chmielowski—9680
LJun 19 · 05:35M. Kolek—71471282J. Chmielowski—11121110113
LJun 10 · 13:05M. Kolek—1018111162J. Chmielowski—122099113
WJun 10 · 04:55M. Kolek—11117113J. Chmielowski—991181
WApr 19 · 21:35M. Kolek—1119113J. Chmielowski—91790
WFeb 22 · 01:45M. Kolek—1111815113J. Chmielowski—75111772
M. Kolek10
WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491LSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113LSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.6189111172M. Kolek2.20111167113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520LSep 3 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.381611971J. Kuzmicz1.5318611113WSep 2 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.67117911153L. Pietraszko2.10811116132
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.