TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13063844
Played Sep 3Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1618116911711––
Jakub Kuzmicz
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:30 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 16-18
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 89 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 63.6%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 7–5 Jakub Kuzmicz Jakub Kuzmicz has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:30What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kuzmicz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Chmielowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1580 vs Kuzmicz 1801
Kuzmicz
Correct
both rated, 221 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 60% vs Kuzmicz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 60% vs Kuzmicz 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski +2 · Kuzmicz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kuzmicz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 2.38 / Kuzmicz 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kuzmicz)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13063844
Chmielowski2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog38% won 70 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back22% 24 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Kuzmicz1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 414 of 683
Up 2–0, closes it98% 168 of 172
Up 1–0, closes it81% 285 of 354
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmielowski5wins
AwayKuzmicz5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmielowski57.1%4 of 7
AwayKuzmicz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski7Kuzmicz3n = 10Chmielowski took 7 of 10
S2Chmielowski5Kuzmicz5n = 10split evenly
S3Chmielowski5Kuzmicz5n = 10split evenly
S4Chmielowski4Kuzmicz6n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10
S5Chmielowski2Kuzmicz3n = 5Kuzmicz took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmielowskiKuzmiczC − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.843.4+0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 712 vs 644 / 112248.9%57.4%348 / 712 vs 644 / 1122Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmiczChmielowski 2.38/Kuzmicz 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kuzmicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 20 · 13:50J. Chmielowski—51111143J. Kuzmicz—1169121
WJun 27 · 04:30J. Chmielowski—11411113J. Kuzmicz—811591
LJun 26 · 10:30J. Chmielowski—116114112J. Kuzmicz—711511133
LJun 25 · 13:25J. Chmielowski—2113813102J. Kuzmicz—19111115123
WJun 25 · 06:50J. Chmielowski—11118113J. Kuzmicz—351181
WJun 25 · 04:25J. Chmielowski—119115123J. Kuzmicz—811711102
LJun 11 · 05:20J. Chmielowski—891171J. Kuzmicz—11117113
WMar 27 · 08:55J. Chmielowski—1111610113J. Kuzmicz—48111252
LFeb 20 · 16:05J. Chmielowski—121061182J. Kuzmicz—1012117113
LFeb 20 · 02:05J. Chmielowski—912651J. Kuzmicz—111011113
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520WSep 2 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.67117911153L. Pietraszko2.10811116132
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.401110961J. Kuzmicz1.3091211113WSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123WSep 6 · 17:20D. Jadam2.3881141172J. Kuzmicz1.53117118113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.75139144113J. Kuzmicz1.401111121162WSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113LSep 5 · 19:40J. Kuzmicz1.731013691P. Jendrzejewski2.00121111113LSep 5 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.5091171172F. Mlynarski2.50118119113WSep 5 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.5711118113D. Jadam2.25661171WSep 5 · 16:05T. Filbrandt2.251111781J. Kuzmicz1.5791311103LSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113
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