TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065666
Played Sep 3Finished
Jakub Witkowski
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911118611114117
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Witkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Witkowski above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 89 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jakub Witkowski at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Witkowski 10–7 Jakub Chmielowski Jakub Chmielowski has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:29What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Witkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Witkowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Witkowski 1481 vs Chmielowski 1563
Chmielowski
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Witkowski 40% vs Chmielowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Witkowski 20% vs Chmielowski 50%
Chmielowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Witkowski -3 · Chmielowski -2
Witkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Witkowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWitkowski 1.80 / Chmielowski 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Witkowski)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13065666
Witkowski1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite62% won 66 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it85% 46 of 54
Chmielowski1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 72 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWitkowski6wins
AwayChmielowski4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderWitkowski leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWitkowski100%3 of 3
AwayChmielowski57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Witkowski3Chmielowski7n = 10Chmielowski took 7 of 10
S2Witkowski1Chmielowski9n = 10Chmielowski took 9 of 10
S3Witkowski9Chmielowski1n = 10Witkowski took 9 of 10
S4Witkowski8Chmielowski2n = 10Witkowski took 8 of 10
S5Witkowski4Chmielowski3n = 7Witkowski took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWitkowskiChmielowskiW − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match46.846.6+0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWitkowskiChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 844 vs 348 / 71446.6%48.7%393 / 844 vs 348 / 714Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WitkowskiWitkowski 1.80/Chmielowski 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Witkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Witkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 18:05J. Witkowski—6811101J. Chmielowski—11117123
WMay 28 · 15:05J. Witkowski—11411113J. Chmielowski—811381
WMay 23 · 01:30J. Witkowski—1510715113J. Chmielowski—1312111392
WMay 22 · 23:00J. Witkowski—891111143J. Chmielowski—111159122
WMay 17 · 02:20J. Witkowski—781113113J. Chmielowski—111181172
LMay 16 · 23:55J. Witkowski—58111172J. Chmielowski—111198113
LMay 16 · 21:10J. Witkowski—119111162J. Chmielowski—131198113
WMay 16 · 24:15J. Witkowski—11712113J. Chmielowski—7111081
LMay 15 · 21:50J. Witkowski—89111382J. Chmielowski—1111911113
WMay 15 · 19:25J. Witkowski—1113119113J. Chmielowski—131171182
J. Witkowski10
LSep 3 · 20:05J. Witkowski5.00411581M. Benes1.1411911113WSep 3 · 18:30J. Braun1.2011814111J. Witkowski4.33131112133LSep 3 · 17:40P. Klos1.131111113J. Witkowski5.504670LSep 3 · 15:45J. Witkowski2.639813121A. Daniel1.44111111143LSep 3 · 14:40M. Kolek1.91111799113J. Witkowski1.80815111182LSep 3 · 13:30J. Witkowski1.8079120B. Czerwinski1.901111143WSep 3 · 12:15R. Stapor2.156118101J. Witkowski1.6011711123WSep 3 · 11:00A. Lilien2.2014116462J. Witkowski1.601291111113LSep 3 · 09:25A. Mugowski2.451114913113J. Witkowski1.47812111592LSep 2 · 19:40A. Spychala1.801211113J. Witkowski1.9110790
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520LSep 3 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.381611971J. Kuzmicz1.5318611113WSep 2 · 23:20J. Chmielowski1.67117911153L. Pietraszko2.10811116132
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