TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065824
Played Sep 3Finished
Jakub Witkowski
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
91181113111214––
Artur Daniel
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:49 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeArtur Daniel to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Witkowski above · Artur Daniel below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 89 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Artur Daniel at 54.8%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Witkowski 13–19 Artur Daniel Jakub Witkowski has won 13 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:49What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Daniel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-19 in 32
Daniel
Correct
gap of 6 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Witkowski 1485 vs Daniel 1749
Daniel
Correct
both rated, 263 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Witkowski 40% vs Daniel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Witkowski 20% vs Daniel 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Witkowski -2 · Daniel -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Daniel) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Daniel form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWitkowski 2.63 / Daniel 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Daniel)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13065824
Witkowski2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 75 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back16% 20 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 73
Daniel1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 205 of 340
Up 2–0, closes it95% 105 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it77% 158 of 205
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWitkowski6wins
AwayDaniel4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWitkowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWitkowski75%3 of 4
AwayDaniel50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Witkowski4Daniel6n = 10Daniel took 6 of 10
S2Witkowski4Daniel6n = 10Daniel took 6 of 10
S3Witkowski5Daniel5n = 10split evenly
S4Witkowski6Daniel3n = 9Witkowski took 6 of 9
S5Witkowski3Daniel1n = 4Witkowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWitkowskiDanielW − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.942.2−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWitkowskiDanielBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 843 vs 780 / 146546.6%53.2%393 / 843 vs 780 / 1465Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanielWitkowski 2.63/Daniel 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Daniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Daniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 25 · 20:05J. Witkowski—1311119113A. Daniel—15661192
LJun 24 · 18:50J. Witkowski—631241A. Daniel—111110113
WMay 28 · 19:00J. Witkowski—11101411113A. Daniel—71216982
WMay 21 · 18:35J. Witkowski—12811123A. Daniel—10119101
LApr 29 · 20:10J. Witkowski—13760A. Daniel—1511113
WApr 16 · 19:25J. Witkowski—101111113A. Daniel—126951
WApr 9 · 17:50J. Witkowski—11813113A. Daniel—9111161
WMar 19 · 16:05J. Witkowski—811711113A. Daniel—11511682
LMar 7 · 13:00J. Witkowski—1161012102A. Daniel—5111210123
LFeb 12 · 17:40J. Witkowski—712561A. Daniel—111011113
J. Witkowski10
LSep 3 · 20:05J. Witkowski5.00411581M. Benes1.1411911113WSep 3 · 18:30J. Braun1.2011814111J. Witkowski4.33131112133LSep 3 · 17:40P. Klos1.131111113J. Witkowski5.504670WSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 14:40M. Kolek1.91111799113J. Witkowski1.80815111182LSep 3 · 13:30J. Witkowski1.8079120B. Czerwinski1.901111143WSep 3 · 12:15R. Stapor2.156118101J. Witkowski1.6011711123WSep 3 · 11:00A. Lilien2.2014116462J. Witkowski1.601291111113LSep 3 · 09:25A. Mugowski2.451114913113J. Witkowski1.47812111592LSep 2 · 19:40A. Spychala1.801211113J. Witkowski1.9110790
A. Daniel10
WSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592LSep 4 · 19:40A. Daniel1.3311114992T. Filbrandt3.25651111113LSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113WSep 4 · 17:20P. Jendrzejewski2.0071141182A. Daniel1.73119119113WSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 14:35A. Daniel3.0011611113S. Dosz1.33411681WSep 4 · 13:00A. Daniel1.3511711113G. Poliniewicz2.85611591WSep 4 · 11:45A. Daniel1.80711911113K. Wloczko1.9011911682LSep 4 · 10:05A. Daniel1.3711911982J. Zochniak2.75611911113LSep 4 · 09:00A. Daniel1.42114711112K. Wisniewski2.60311119133
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