TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065825
Played Sep 3Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181715911911118
Jakub Witkowski
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
110 points played in total.
Set by set
1181715911911118
H2H Maciej Kolek 4–9 Jakub Witkowski Maciej Kolek has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:49What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Witkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Witkowski
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1630 vs Witkowski 1492
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 100% vs Witkowski 40%
Kolek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 70% vs Witkowski 20%
Kolek
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +5 · Witkowski -1
Kolek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Witkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Witkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.91 / Witkowski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Witkowski)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13065825
Kolek1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 184 of 473
Down 0–1, comes back21% 58 of 281
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 133
Witkowski1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite62% won 66 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it85% 46 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek2wins
AwayWitkowski8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWitkowski leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek33.3%1 of 3
AwayWitkowski85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek3Witkowski7n = 10Witkowski took 7 of 10
S2Kolek4Witkowski6n = 10Witkowski took 6 of 10
S3Kolek8Witkowski2n = 10Kolek took 8 of 10
S4Kolek1Witkowski9n = 10Witkowski took 9 of 10
S5Kolek1Witkowski3n = 4Witkowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekWitkowskiK − WBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.144.1−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekWitkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime673 / 1357 vs 393 / 84249.6%46.7%673 / 1357 vs 393 / 842Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WitkowskiKolek 1.91/Witkowski 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Witkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 12:10M. Kolek—731171J. Witkowski—11117113
LJun 3 · 16:55M. Kolek—61111792J. Witkowski—116711113
LMay 27 · 23:50M. Kolek—11812972J. Witkowski—9111011113
LMay 27 · 21:30M. Kolek—111011982J. Witkowski—912611113
LApr 16 · 12:40M. Kolek—9911101J. Witkowski—11119123
LApr 11 · 20:15M. Kolek—1141181J. Witkowski—13119113
LMar 25 · 17:15M. Kolek—713661J. Witkowski—111111113
WFeb 27 · 24:50M. Kolek—91111113J. Witkowski—117881
LFeb 26 · 22:30M. Kolek—8118131J. Witkowski—11711153
WFeb 14 · 17:45M. Kolek—117116113J. Witkowski—91191152
M. Kolek10
WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491LSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113LSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.6189111172M. Kolek2.20111167113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113
J. Witkowski10
LSep 3 · 20:05J. Witkowski5.00411581M. Benes1.1411911113WSep 3 · 18:30J. Braun1.2011814111J. Witkowski4.33131112133LSep 3 · 17:40P. Klos1.131111113J. Witkowski5.504670WSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:45J. Witkowski2.639813121A. Daniel1.44111111143LSep 3 · 13:30J. Witkowski1.8079120B. Czerwinski1.901111143WSep 3 · 12:15R. Stapor2.156118101J. Witkowski1.6011711123WSep 3 · 11:00A. Lilien2.2014116462J. Witkowski1.601291111113LSep 3 · 09:25A. Mugowski2.451114913113J. Witkowski1.47812111592LSep 2 · 19:40A. Spychala1.801211113J. Witkowski1.9110790
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