TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13073784
Played Sep 5Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81112101113119911
Maciej Kolek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 105 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 60.2%
105 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 23–20 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 20 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:27What took a side0 for · 6 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rutkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-20 in 43
Rutkowski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1672 vs Kolek 1602
Rutkowski
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 60% vs Kolek 40%
Rutkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 60% vs Kolek 40%
Rutkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +3 · Kolek -1
Rutkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.57 / Kolek 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Rutkowski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13073784
Rutkowski1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 381 of 552
Up 2–0, closes it96% 184 of 191
Up 1–0, closes it88% 306 of 346
Kolek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 185 of 476
Down 0–1, comes back21% 58 of 283
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 134
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski7wins
AwayKolek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski87.5%7 of 8
AwayKolekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski8Kolek2n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S2Rutkowski5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S3Rutkowski7Kolek3n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S4Rutkowski1Kolek5n = 6Kolek took 5 of 6
S5Rutkowski3Kolek1n = 4Rutkowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiKolekR − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.334.4+3.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime767 / 1368 vs 678 / 137056.1%49.5%767 / 1368 vs 678 / 1370Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.57/Kolek 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 2 · 17:00M. Rutkowski—1110119113M. Kolek—41271162
WJul 2 · 16:30M. Rutkowski—1110119113M. Kolek—41271162
WJun 24 · 01:10M. Rutkowski—11811113M. Kolek—511761
WJun 23 · 22:50M. Rutkowski—1111113M. Kolek—8860
WJun 14 · 16:25M. Rutkowski—1111113M. Kolek—9360
LJun 13 · 20:15M. Rutkowski—9690M. Kolek—1111113
WMay 28 · 01:30M. Rutkowski—111156113M. Kolek—96111192
LMay 27 · 23:00M. Rutkowski—91111682M. Kolek—116911113
WApr 30 · 19:00M. Rutkowski—1111113M. Kolek—9980
LApr 22 · 01:30M. Rutkowski—114471M. Kolek—91111113
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380LSep 4 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.801111113M. Rutkowski1.919550WSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961LSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 18:05T. Filbrandt2.101191171M. Rutkowski1.6771113113LSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113WSep 3 · 22:55J. Glanowski3.75121050M. Rutkowski1.251412113
M. Kolek10
LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491LSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113LSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.6189111172M. Kolek2.20111167113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113WSep 3 · 23:45J. Glanowski2.2561060M. Kolek1.571112113
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