TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13073788
Played Sep 4Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116118––––
Jakub Kuzmicz
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 57.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 39–31 Jakub Kuzmicz Jakub Kuzmicz has won 31 of their 70 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:28What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-31 in 70
Rutkowski
Correct
gap of 8 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1621 vs Kuzmicz 1816
Kuzmicz
Wrong
both rated, 194 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 60% vs Kuzmicz 80%
Kuzmicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 50% vs Kuzmicz 70%
Kuzmicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +1 · Kuzmicz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.73 / Kuzmicz 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rutkowski)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13073788
Rutkowski1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 381 of 552
Up 2–0, closes it96% 184 of 191
Up 1–0, closes it88% 306 of 346
Kuzmicz2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog51% won 138 of 272
Down 0–1, comes back29% 37 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski5wins
AwayKuzmicz5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski71.4%5 of 7
AwayKuzmicz100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski7Kuzmicz3n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S2Rutkowski6Kuzmicz4n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S3Rutkowski5Kuzmicz5n = 10split evenly
S4Rutkowski4Kuzmicz3n = 7Rutkowski took 4 of 7
S5Rutkowski1Kuzmicz4n = 5Kuzmicz took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiKuzmiczR − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.537.9+1.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime765 / 1366 vs 649 / 112856%57.5%765 / 1366 vs 649 / 1128Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.73/Kuzmicz 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 20 · 23:15M. Rutkowski—11118732J. Kuzmicz—491111113
LJul 20 · 21:00M. Rutkowski—310111172J. Kuzmicz—111254113
WJul 18 · 19:40M. Rutkowski—14127113J. Kuzmicz—12101191
LJul 15 · 01:10M. Rutkowski—128116122J. Kuzmicz—1011811143
WJul 14 · 22:50M. Rutkowski—1311113J. Kuzmicz—11980
WJul 14 · 01:10M. Rutkowski—11118113J. Kuzmicz—651161
WJul 13 · 22:50M. Rutkowski—1111113J. Kuzmicz—8540
WJul 10 · 18:30M. Rutkowski—116611113J. Kuzmicz—91111442
LJul 9 · 18:50M. Rutkowski—6580J. Kuzmicz—1111113
LJul 2 · 20:05M. Rutkowski—1011111232J. Kuzmicz—126614113
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380LSep 4 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.801111113M. Rutkowski1.919550WSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961LSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 18:05T. Filbrandt2.101191171M. Rutkowski1.6771113113LSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113WSep 3 · 22:55J. Glanowski3.75121050M. Rutkowski1.251412113
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.401110961J. Kuzmicz1.3091211113WSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123WSep 6 · 17:20D. Jadam2.3881141172J. Kuzmicz1.53117118113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.75139144113J. Kuzmicz1.401111121162WSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113LSep 5 · 19:40J. Kuzmicz1.731013691P. Jendrzejewski2.00121111113LSep 5 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.5091171172F. Mlynarski2.50118119113WSep 5 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.5711118113D. Jadam2.25661171WSep 5 · 16:05T. Filbrandt2.251111781J. Kuzmicz1.5791311103WSep 5 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.22911116113A. Wos4.0011991192
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