Krzysztof Kapik vs Jakub Kuzmicz 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083283

Played Sep 6Finished

Krzysztof Kapik

Home

2.25

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 2

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

8119111151012––

Jakub Kuzmicz

Away

1.57

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Jakub Kuzmicz to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

no pick shipped

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Jakub Kuzmicz below

Set 1 · 8-11

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 11-5

Set 4 · 10-12

Point 77 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 54.0%

77 points played in total.

H2H Krzysztof Kapik 26–34 Jakub Kuzmicz Krzysztof Kapik has won 26 of their 60 meetings.

Last 10 · 3–7Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 15:31

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Kuzmicz

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

26-34 in 60

Kuzmicz

Correct

gap of 8 in 60, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kapik 1642 vs Kuzmicz 1759

Kuzmicz

Correct

both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kapik 40% vs Kuzmicz 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kapik 60% vs Kuzmicz 70%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Kapik -2 · Kuzmicz +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kuzmicz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kuzmicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKapik 2.25 / Kuzmicz 1.57

Signal prob.40% / 60%

Edge (Kuzmicz)+1.2pp

TT Elite Series · #13083283

Kapik2.25

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog47% won 206 of 439

Down 0–1, comes back27% 62 of 231

Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 96

Kuzmicz1.57

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite62% won 422 of 683

Up 2–0, closes it98% 173 of 177

Up 1–0, closes it82% 291 of 357

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeKapik3wins

AwayKuzmicz7wins

3 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKapik50%2 of 4

AwayKuzmicz83.3%5 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kapik4Kuzmicz6n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10

S2Kapik4Kuzmicz6n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10

S3Kapik3Kuzmicz7n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10

S4Kapik2Kuzmicz6n = 8Kuzmicz took 6 of 8

S5Kapik2Kuzmicz1n = 3Kapik took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away440%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricKapikKuzmiczKapik − KuzmiczBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.639.5−2.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKapikKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime1115 / 2105 vs 657 / 114053%57.6%1115 / 2105 vs 657 / 1140Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.140.0per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Kuzmicz

Kapik 2.25/Kuzmicz 1.57

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

60.1%

Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Kuzmicz won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LAug 12 · 15:45K. Kapik—12771132J. Kuzmicz—1011114113

WJul 29 · 15:45K. Kapik—914119113J. Kuzmicz—111241172

LJul 28 · 21:50K. Kapik—971161J. Kuzmicz—11117113

LJul 22 · 15:45K. Kapik—914861J. Kuzmicz—111211113

LJul 14 · 23:35K. Kapik—8890J. Kuzmicz—1111113

WJul 14 · 21:20K. Kapik—12116113J. Kuzmicz—1071151

LJul 14 · 24:20K. Kapik—911991J. Kuzmicz—11811113

WJul 13 · 22:05K. Kapik—114118113J. Kuzmicz—71161152

LJul 9 · 15:45K. Kapik—11460J. Kuzmicz—1311113

LJul 6 · 17:40K. Kapik—116881J. Kuzmicz—31111113

K. Kapik10

LSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113 LSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113 WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640 LSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113 WSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113 LSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101 LSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100 WSep 6 · 15:25D. Jadam1.6766100K. Kapik2.101111113 LSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182 WSep 2 · 19:15J. Chmielowski1.6111411882K. Kapik2.20911811113

J. Kuzmicz10

WSep 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.401110961J. Kuzmicz1.3091211113 WSep 6 · 17:20D. Jadam2.3881141172J. Kuzmicz1.53117118113 LSep 6 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.75139144113J. Kuzmicz1.401111121162 WSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113 LSep 5 · 19:40J. Kuzmicz1.731013691P. Jendrzejewski2.00121111113 LSep 5 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.5091171172F. Mlynarski2.50118119113 WSep 5 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.5711118113D. Jadam2.25661171 WSep 5 · 16:05T. Filbrandt2.251111781J. Kuzmicz1.5791311103 WSep 5 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.22911116113A. Wos4.0011991192 WSep 5 · 01:30J. Kuzmicz1.50111188113T. Filbrandt2.5048111192

Upcoming Matches

K. Kapik5 of 9 neutral

Sep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik—K. Glazowski——Sep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 7 · 17:40K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 7 · 18:30K. Kapik—K. Strowski——Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 7 · 21:25K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 7 · 22:10K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 24:35K. Kapik—B. Sulkowski——

J. Kuzmicz

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