TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13060862
Played Sep 2Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119411118811811
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 59.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 11–15 Krzysztof Kapik Jakub Chmielowski has won 11 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:03What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chmielowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-15 in 26
Kapik
Correct
gap of 4 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1561 vs Kapik 1709
Kapik
Correct
both rated, 148 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 60% vs Kapik 80%
Kapik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 40% vs Kapik 80%
Kapik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski +2 · Kapik +3
Kapik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmielowski) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 1.61 / Kapik 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmielowski)-3.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13060862
Chmielowski1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 114 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it89% 50 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it72% 91 of 126
Kapik2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 210 of 446
Down 0–1, comes back27% 62 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmielowski4wins
AwayKapik6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKapik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmielowski50%2 of 4
AwayKapik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski4Kapik6n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S2Chmielowski4Kapik6n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S3Chmielowski6Kapik4n = 10Chmielowski took 6 of 10
S4Chmielowski3Kapik4n = 7Kapik took 4 of 7
S5Chmielowski1Kapik2n = 3Kapik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmielowskiKapikC − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.638.9−4.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime345 / 707 vs 1129 / 212548.8%53.1%345 / 707 vs 1129 / 2125Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiChmielowski 1.61/Kapik 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 21 · 12:10J. Chmielowski—11119113K. Kapik—771191
LJun 11 · 10:40J. Chmielowski—11513412K. Kapik—6111111113
WJun 11 · 07:35J. Chmielowski—91111113K. Kapik—118841
WMay 28 · 20:10J. Chmielowski—811114123K. Kapik—118811102
LMay 15 · 24:40J. Chmielowski—76100K. Kapik—1111123
LMay 14 · 22:15J. Chmielowski—9480K. Kapik—1111113
LMay 14 · 17:00J. Chmielowski—68111162K. Kapik—111193113
WApr 25 · 19:05J. Chmielowski—1111153K. Kapik—95130
LFeb 20 · 24:50J. Chmielowski—1031271K. Kapik—121110113
LFeb 19 · 22:30J. Chmielowski—127531K. Kapik—101111113
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 3 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.6161161182J. Chmielowski2.20118117113WSep 3 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311814992J. Chmielowski1.836111211113WSep 3 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.50115911153M. Rutkowski1.50911115132WSep 3 · 21:00J. Glanowski2.7511631152J. Chmielowski1.40811118113WSep 3 · 20:30P. Klos1.1788111192J. Chmielowski4.50111147113LSep 3 · 19:15J. Chmielowski4.007370M. Benes1.221111113LSep 3 · 18:05A. Daniel1.53613312113J. Chmielowski2.381111111022LSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:25J. Braun1.221111113J. Chmielowski4.004520LSep 3 · 24:10J. Chmielowski2.381611971J. Kuzmicz1.5318611113
K. Kapik10
LSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113LSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640LSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113WSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123LSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101LSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:25D. Jadam1.6766100K. Kapik2.101111113LSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182
Upcoming Matches
J. Chmielowski
Nothing scheduled
K. Kapik5 of 9 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik—K. Glazowski——Sep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 7 · 17:40K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 7 · 18:30K. Kapik—K. Strowski——Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 7 · 21:25K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 7 · 22:10K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 24:35K. Kapik—B. Sulkowski——
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