TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083388
Played Sep 6Finished
Filip Mlynarski
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118811118311811
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:59 and never touched — 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Mlynarski above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 90 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 58.4%
90 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mlynarski 14–18 Krzysztof Kapik Filip Mlynarski has won 14 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:59What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kapik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-18 in 32
Kapik
Correct
gap of 4 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mlynarski 1689 vs Kapik 1673
Mlynarski
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mlynarski 20% vs Kapik 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mlynarski 50% vs Kapik 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mlynarski -2 · Kapik -3
Kapik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kapik) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMlynarski 1.83 / Kapik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kapik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13083388
Mlynarski1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kapik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMlynarski3wins
AwayKapik7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKapik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMlynarski66.7%2 of 3
AwayKapik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mlynarski3Kapik7n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S2Mlynarski5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S3Mlynarski8Kapik2n = 10Mlynarski took 8 of 10
S4Mlynarski2Kapik6n = 8Kapik took 6 of 8
S5Mlynarski0Kapik3n = 3Kapik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMlynarskiKapikM − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.340.2−2.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMlynarskiKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 290 vs 1116 / 210756.2%53%163 / 290 vs 1116 / 2107Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikMlynarski 1.83/Kapik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 22:10F. Mlynarski—91111672K. Kapik—116811113
WAug 9 · 18:50F. Mlynarski—12813113K. Kapik—10111181
WJul 26 · 18:50F. Mlynarski—1111113K. Kapik—7460
LJul 19 · 23:55F. Mlynarski—5820K. Kapik—1111113
LJul 19 · 21:45F. Mlynarski—1312891K. Kapik—151011113
LJul 12 · 18:50F. Mlynarski—891251K. Kapik—111110113
LJul 5 · 15:00F. Mlynarski—11101110102K. Kapik—812712123
WJun 14 · 18:40F. Mlynarski—51311113K. Kapik—1111891
LMay 12 · 07:35F. Mlynarski—5101121K. Kapik—11124113
LApr 21 · 02:00F. Mlynarski—61111762K. Kapik—116811113
F. Mlynarski10
WSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113LSep 6 · 22:35A. Wos3.25125117113F. Mlynarski1.33101181162LSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123LSep 6 · 21:00D. Jadam1.911311118113F. Mlynarski1.8015941172LSep 6 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.40810111192J. Zochniak2.75111254113LSep 6 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.4491311962L. Pietraszko2.631111511113WSep 6 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4411812113D. Jadam2.638111011LSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113LSep 6 · 24:35P. Jendrzejewski2.001111123F. Mlynarski1.7396100WSep 5 · 22:55D. Jadam1.7314630F. Mlynarski2.001611113
K. Kapik10
LSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113LSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640LSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113LSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123LSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101LSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:25D. Jadam1.6766100K. Kapik2.101111113LSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182WSep 2 · 19:15J. Chmielowski1.6111411882K. Kapik2.20911811113
Upcoming Matches
F. Mlynarski
Nothing scheduled
K. Kapik5 of 9 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik—K. Glazowski——Sep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 7 · 17:40K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 7 · 18:30K. Kapik—K. Strowski——Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 7 · 21:25K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 7 · 22:10K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 24:35K. Kapik—B. Sulkowski——
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