TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083389
Played Sep 6Finished
Filip Mlynarski
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111012115114911
Jakub Zochniak
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:59 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeFilip Mlynarski to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFilip Mlynarski above · Jakub Zochniak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Filip Mlynarski at 57.2%
92 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mlynarski 9–3 Jakub Zochniak Jakub Zochniak has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:59What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Mlynarski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Mlynarski
Wrong
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mlynarski 1701 vs Zochniak 1625
Mlynarski
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mlynarski 40% vs Zochniak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mlynarski 60% vs Zochniak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mlynarski -1 · Zochniak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Mlynarski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mlynarski form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMlynarski 1.40 / Zochniak 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Mlynarski)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13083389
Mlynarski1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 139 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it96% 73 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 123
Zochniak2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 158 of 460
Down 0–1, comes back13% 34 of 260
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMlynarski8wins
AwayZochniak2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMlynarski leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMlynarski100%7 of 7
AwayZochniak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mlynarski7Zochniak3n = 10Mlynarski took 7 of 10
S2Mlynarski6Zochniak4n = 10Mlynarski took 6 of 10
S3Mlynarski7Zochniak3n = 10Mlynarski took 7 of 10
S4Mlynarski5Zochniak2n = 7Mlynarski took 5 of 7
S5Mlynarski2Zochniak1n = 3Mlynarski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMlynarskiZochniakM − ZBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.931.3+8.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMlynarskiZochniakBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 289 vs 1186 / 225356.4%52.6%163 / 289 vs 1186 / 2253Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MlynarskiMlynarski 1.40/Zochniak 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Mlynarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zochniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 16:05F. Mlynarski—11911113J. Zochniak—911461
WAug 9 · 22:35F. Mlynarski—812314113J. Zochniak—1110111242
WJul 26 · 23:55F. Mlynarski—11611113J. Zochniak—511751
LJul 26 · 21:45F. Mlynarski—581181J. Zochniak—11112113
WJul 26 · 16:05F. Mlynarski—1181112113J. Zochniak—71131422
LJul 20 · 24:45F. Mlynarski—81281172J. Zochniak—1110115113
WJul 19 · 22:30F. Mlynarski—1111113J. Zochniak—5950
WJul 12 · 16:05F. Mlynarski—1113113J. Zochniak—81160
WJul 12 · 24:20F. Mlynarski—11115113J. Zochniak—571171
WJul 11 · 22:05F. Mlynarski—1111113J. Zochniak—5350
F. Mlynarski10
WSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113LSep 6 · 22:35A. Wos3.25125117113F. Mlynarski1.33101181162LSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123LSep 6 · 21:00D. Jadam1.911311118113F. Mlynarski1.8015941172LSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.4491311962L. Pietraszko2.631111511113WSep 6 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4411812113D. Jadam2.638111011LSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113LSep 6 · 24:35P. Jendrzejewski2.001111123F. Mlynarski1.7396100WSep 5 · 22:55D. Jadam1.7314630F. Mlynarski2.001611113
J. Zochniak10
WSep 7 · 06:25J. Zochniak1.54111111113M. Minda2.25881381LSep 7 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.75991281D. Solilo1.95111110113LSep 7 · 04:00M. Sklensky1.42111111113J. Zochniak2.60471351LSep 7 · 03:20J. Zochniak2.95881141K. Wisniewski1.3311116113LSep 6 · 19:40D. Jadam1.61178912113J. Zochniak2.201511111092WSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101WSep 6 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.75139144113J. Kuzmicz1.401111121162LSep 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko1.73961111113J. Zochniak2.0011119562LSep 4 · 13:50J. Zochniak3.25114481G. Poliniewicz1.2761111113LSep 4 · 12:35J. Zochniak4.955980K. Wloczko1.131111113
Upcoming Matches
F. Mlynarski
Nothing scheduled
J. Zochniak
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