TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087114
Played Sep 6Finished
Jakub Zochniak
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111151191210––
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Zochniak above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 76 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 59.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Zochniak 41–83 Krzysztof Kapik Jakub Zochniak has won 41 of their 124 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:32What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kapik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-83 in 124
Kapik
Wrong
gap of 42 in 124, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zochniak 1609 vs Kapik 1656
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zochniak 40% vs Kapik 60%
Kapik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zochniak 50% vs Kapik 70%
Kapik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zochniak +1 · Kapik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Kapik) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZochniak 2.63 / Kapik 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Kapik)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13087114
Zochniak2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 158 of 460
Down 0–1, comes back13% 34 of 260
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 137
Kapik1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 257 of 412
Up 2–0, closes it97% 131 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it79% 177 of 224
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZochniak3wins
AwayKapik7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKapik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZochniak66.7%2 of 3
AwayKapik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zochniak3Kapik7n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S2Zochniak5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S3Zochniak5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S4Zochniak1Kapik7n = 8Kapik took 7 of 8
S5Zochniak2Kapik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZochniakKapikZ − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.241.5−5.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZochniakKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime1184 / 2250 vs 1115 / 210452.6%53%1184 / 2250 vs 1115 / 2104Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikZochniak 2.63/Kapik 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zochniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 09:20J. Zochniak—91111272K. Kapik—116911113
LAug 22 · 04:00J. Zochniak—611631K. Kapik—11811113
LAug 10 · 24:35J. Zochniak—9890K. Kapik—1111113
LJul 29 · 16:30J. Zochniak—1061241K. Kapik—121110113
WJul 26 · 19:40J. Zochniak—11116113K. Kapik—961161
WJul 23 · 09:20J. Zochniak—115114113K. Kapik—71171162
LJul 21 · 20:05J. Zochniak—1176101K. Kapik—91111123
WJul 20 · 19:15J. Zochniak—912116113K. Kapik—111091162
LJul 19 · 23:35J. Zochniak—1011111162K. Kapik—126713113
LJul 19 · 21:20J. Zochniak—85120K. Kapik—1111143
J. Zochniak10
WSep 7 · 06:25J. Zochniak1.54111111113M. Minda2.25881381LSep 7 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.75991281D. Solilo1.95111110113LSep 7 · 04:00M. Sklensky1.42111111113J. Zochniak2.60471351LSep 7 · 03:20J. Zochniak2.95881141K. Wisniewski1.3311116113LSep 6 · 19:40D. Jadam1.61178912113J. Zochniak2.201511111092WSep 6 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.40810111192J. Zochniak2.75111254113WSep 6 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.75139144113J. Kuzmicz1.401111121162LSep 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko1.73961111113J. Zochniak2.0011119562LSep 4 · 13:50J. Zochniak3.25114481G. Poliniewicz1.2761111113LSep 4 · 12:35J. Zochniak4.955980K. Wloczko1.131111113
K. Kapik10
LSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113LSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640LSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113WSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123LSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:25D. Jadam1.6766100K. Kapik2.101111113LSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182WSep 2 · 19:15J. Chmielowski1.6111411882K. Kapik2.20911811113
Upcoming Matches
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