TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083186
Played Sep 7Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12106111012811––
Dawid Jadam
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:20 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Dawid Jadam below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 80 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 67.5%
80 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 12–4 Dawid Jadam Dawid Jadam has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Kapik beat Jadam 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:20What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jadam
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-4 in 16
Kapik
Wrong
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1634 vs Jadam 1656
Jadam
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 40% vs Jadam 80%
Jadam
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 40% vs Jadam 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik -1 · Jadam +4
Jadam
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Jadam) · live re-read · sealed at 33% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadam form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 2.25 / Jadam 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Jadam)-2.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13083186
Kapik2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 206 of 439
Down 0–1, comes back27% 62 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 96
Jadam1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 64 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it86% 42 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik6wins
AwayJadam4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKapik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik66.7%4 of 6
AwayJadam50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik6Jadam4n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S2Kapik6Jadam4n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S3Kapik4Jadam6n = 10Jadam took 6 of 10
S4Kapik6Jadam2n = 8Kapik took 6 of 8
S5Kapik1Jadam2n = 3Jadam took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikJadamK − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.737.0+3.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikJadamBasisWin rate · lifetime1117 / 2111 vs 154 / 31652.9%48.7%1117 / 2111 vs 154 / 316Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadamKapik 2.25/Jadam 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.4%
Jadam · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jadam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 8 · 23:15K. Kapik—118911113D. Jadam—91111462
WJul 8 · 21:00K. Kapik—12119113D. Jadam—1051191
LJul 8 · 16:55K. Kapik—11991172D. Jadam—611114113
WJul 7 · 19:15K. Kapik—11157123D. Jadam—51311101
WJul 2 · 23:35K. Kapik—91111113D. Jadam—118931
LJul 2 · 21:20K. Kapik—1331381D. Jadam—111115113
WJul 1 · 23:55K. Kapik—1211113D. Jadam—10660
WJul 1 · 21:45K. Kapik—121111113D. Jadam—145561
LJun 21 · 23:15K. Kapik—81090D. Jadam—1112113
LJun 21 · 21:00K. Kapik—71111532D. Jadam—115911113
K. Kapik10
LSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640LSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113WSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123LSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101LSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:25D. Jadam1.6766100K. Kapik2.101111113LSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182WSep 2 · 19:15J. Chmielowski1.6111411882K. Kapik2.20911811113
D. Jadam10
WSep 6 · 23:45D. Jadam1.5011113113A. Wos2.50711161WSep 6 · 22:55D. Jadam1.67115811113L. Pietraszko2.1091111792WSep 6 · 21:00D. Jadam1.911311118113F. Mlynarski1.8015941172WSep 6 · 19:40D. Jadam1.61178912113J. Zochniak2.201511111092LSep 6 · 18:30D. Jadam1.67105120L. Pietraszko2.101211143LSep 6 · 17:20D. Jadam2.3881141172J. Kuzmicz1.53117118113LSep 6 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4411812113D. Jadam2.638111011LSep 6 · 15:25D. Jadam1.6766100K. Kapik2.101111113LSep 6 · 24:10A. Wos2.5011116113D. Jadam1.50851191WSep 5 · 23:45D. Jadam1.911111113P. Jendrzejewski1.805980
Upcoming Matches
K. Kapik5 of 9 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik—K. Glazowski——Sep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 7 · 17:40K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 7 · 18:30K. Kapik—K. Strowski——Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 7 · 21:25K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 7 · 22:10K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 24:35K. Kapik—B. Sulkowski——
D. Jadam
Nothing scheduled
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