TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083189
Played Sep 6Finished
Dawid Jadam
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1315119114811117
Filip Mlynarski
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:21 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeFilip Mlynarski to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDawid Jadam above · Filip Mlynarski below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 100 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Filip Mlynarski at 56.9%
100 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Jadam 2–5 Filip Mlynarski Dawid Jadam has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:21What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mlynarski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Mlynarski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadam 1605 vs Mlynarski 1689
Mlynarski
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadam 20% vs Mlynarski 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadam 20% vs Mlynarski 40%
Mlynarski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadam +1 · Mlynarski -3
Mlynarski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mlynarski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mlynarski form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadam 1.91 / Mlynarski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mlynarski)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13083189
Jadam1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog41% won 82 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back21% 22 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 56
Mlynarski1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 139 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it96% 73 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJadam2wins
AwayMlynarski5wins
2 of 7 to a deciderMlynarski leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadamn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMlynarski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadam2Mlynarski5n = 7Mlynarski took 5 of 7
S2Jadam3Mlynarski4n = 7Mlynarski took 4 of 7
S3Jadam2Mlynarski5n = 7Mlynarski took 5 of 7
S4Jadam0Mlynarski5n = 5Mlynarski took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricJadamMlynarskiJ − MBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match33.942.0−8.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadamMlynarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 312 vs 163 / 29048.1%56.2%150 / 312 vs 163 / 290Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MlynarskiJadam 1.91/Mlynarski 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Mlynarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jadam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 6 · 16:05D. Jadam—8111011F. Mlynarski—11812113
LSep 5 · 22:55D. Jadam—14630F. Mlynarski—1611113
LSep 5 · 20:05D. Jadam—4860F. Mlynarski—1111113
WAug 16 · 22:35D. Jadam—9111410113F. Mlynarski—116121282
LAug 16 · 18:50D. Jadam—1111951F. Mlynarski—13911113
WAug 15 · 23:45D. Jadam—113119113F. Mlynarski—91191172
LAug 15 · 20:05D. Jadam—117391F. Mlynarski—81111113
D. Jadam10
WSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113WSep 6 · 23:45D. Jadam1.5011113113A. Wos2.50711161WSep 6 · 22:55D. Jadam1.67115811113L. Pietraszko2.1091111792WSep 6 · 19:40D. Jadam1.61178912113J. Zochniak2.201511111092LSep 6 · 18:30D. Jadam1.67105120L. Pietraszko2.101211143LSep 6 · 17:20D. Jadam2.3881141172J. Kuzmicz1.53117118113LSep 6 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4411812113D. Jadam2.638111011LSep 6 · 15:25D. Jadam1.6766100K. Kapik2.101111113LSep 6 · 24:10A. Wos2.5011116113D. Jadam1.50851191WSep 5 · 23:45D. Jadam1.911111113P. Jendrzejewski1.805980
F. Mlynarski10
WSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113LSep 6 · 22:35A. Wos3.25125117113F. Mlynarski1.33101181162LSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123LSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.40810111192J. Zochniak2.75111254113LSep 6 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.4491311962L. Pietraszko2.631111511113WSep 6 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4411812113D. Jadam2.638111011LSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113LSep 6 · 24:35P. Jendrzejewski2.001111123F. Mlynarski1.7396100WSep 5 · 22:55D. Jadam1.7314630F. Mlynarski2.001611113
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