TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083386
Played Sep 6Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611119511115711
Filip Mlynarski
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:59 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Filip Mlynarski below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 87 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 55.8%
87 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 18–14 Filip Mlynarski Filip Mlynarski has won 14 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:59What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mlynarski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-14 in 32
Kapik
Wrong
gap of 4 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1670 vs Mlynarski 1641
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 40% vs Mlynarski 0%
Kapik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 50% vs Mlynarski 20%
Kapik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik +1 · Mlynarski -5
Mlynarski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kapik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mlynarski form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.91 / Mlynarski 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kapik)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13083386
Kapik1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 206 of 439
Down 0–1, comes back27% 62 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 96
Mlynarski1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 139 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it96% 73 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik7wins
AwayMlynarski3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKapik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik85.7%6 of 7
AwayMlynarski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik7Mlynarski3n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S2Kapik5Mlynarski5n = 10split evenly
S3Kapik2Mlynarski8n = 10Mlynarski took 8 of 10
S4Kapik6Mlynarski2n = 8Kapik took 6 of 8
S5Kapik3Mlynarski0n = 3Kapik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikMlynarskiK − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.237.3+2.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikMlynarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1117 / 2109 vs 163 / 29353%55.6%1117 / 2109 vs 163 / 293Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKapik 1.91/Mlynarski 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mlynarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 22:10K. Kapik—116811113F. Mlynarski—91111672
LAug 9 · 18:50K. Kapik—10111181F. Mlynarski—12813113
LJul 26 · 18:50K. Kapik—7460F. Mlynarski—1111113
WJul 19 · 23:55K. Kapik—1111113F. Mlynarski—5820
WJul 19 · 21:45K. Kapik—151011113F. Mlynarski—1312891
WJul 12 · 18:50K. Kapik—111110113F. Mlynarski—891251
WJul 5 · 15:00K. Kapik—812712123F. Mlynarski—11101110102
LJun 14 · 18:40K. Kapik—1111891F. Mlynarski—51311113
WMay 12 · 07:35K. Kapik—11124113F. Mlynarski—5101121
WApr 21 · 02:00K. Kapik—116811113F. Mlynarski—61111762
K. Kapik10
LSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640LSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113WSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123LSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101LSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:25D. Jadam1.6766100K. Kapik2.101111113LSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182WSep 2 · 19:15J. Chmielowski1.6111411882K. Kapik2.20911811113
F. Mlynarski10
LSep 6 · 22:35A. Wos3.25125117113F. Mlynarski1.33101181162LSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.501156101L. Pietraszko2.5071111123LSep 6 · 21:00D. Jadam1.911311118113F. Mlynarski1.8015941172LSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.40810111192J. Zochniak2.75111254113LSep 6 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.4491311962L. Pietraszko2.631111511113WSep 6 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4411812113D. Jadam2.638111011LSep 6 · 15:00F. Mlynarski2.38131171172J. Kuzmicz1.53158114113LSep 6 · 24:35P. Jendrzejewski2.001111123F. Mlynarski1.7396100WSep 5 · 22:55D. Jadam1.7314630F. Mlynarski2.001611113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kapik5 of 9 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik—K. Glazowski——Sep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 7 · 17:40K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 7 · 18:30K. Kapik—K. Strowski——Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 7 · 21:25K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 7 · 22:10K. Kapik—K. Staszczyk——Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 24:35K. Kapik—B. Sulkowski——
F. Mlynarski
Nothing scheduled
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