TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13059489
Played Sep 2Finished
Michal Olbrycht
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611119118611118
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Olbrycht above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 92 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Michal Olbrycht 57–52 Krzysztof Kapik Krzysztof Kapik has won 52 of their 109 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:33What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kapik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
57-52 in 109
Olbrycht
Correct
gap of 5 in 109, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olbrycht 1632 vs Kapik 1701
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olbrycht 20% vs Kapik 80%
Kapik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olbrycht 40% vs Kapik 80%
Kapik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Olbrycht -3 · Kapik +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kapik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlbrycht 1.83 / Kapik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kapik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13059489
Olbrycht1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kapik1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOlbrycht6wins
AwayKapik4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOlbrycht leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlbrycht85.7%6 of 7
AwayKapik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olbrycht7Kapik3n = 10Olbrycht took 7 of 10
S2Olbrycht3Kapik7n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S3Olbrycht8Kapik2n = 10Olbrycht took 8 of 10
S4Olbrycht5Kapik3n = 8Olbrycht took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOlbrychtKapikO − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.537.6+1.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlbrychtKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime359 / 764 vs 1129 / 212447%53.2%359 / 764 vs 1129 / 2124Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikOlbrycht 1.83/Kapik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Olbrycht won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 18:05M. Olbrycht—12711113K. Kapik—1011771
WAug 11 · 22:10M. Olbrycht—11911113K. Kapik—911781
LAug 11 · 17:40M. Olbrycht—881141K. Kapik—11115113
WJul 28 · 22:35M. Olbrycht—1111113K. Kapik—7990
LJul 27 · 16:55M. Olbrycht—71181162K. Kapik—117118113
LJul 23 · 18:05M. Olbrycht—1169111K. Kapik—71111133
WJul 23 · 10:55M. Olbrycht—141111113K. Kapik—1213851
LJul 7 · 15:00M. Olbrycht—71211131K. Kapik—11149153
WJul 6 · 16:55M. Olbrycht—1111113K. Kapik—8990
WJun 30 · 23:55M. Olbrycht—11912133K. Kapik—81110111
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 3 · 24:35M. Rutkowski1.83911861M. Olbrycht1.8311711113LSep 2 · 22:55J. Kuzmicz1.3612119113M. Olbrycht3.001091131WSep 2 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.108330M. Olbrycht1.671111113WSep 2 · 21:25J. Chmielowski2.20118871M. Olbrycht1.6171111113LSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.001211113M. Olbrycht1.7310660LSep 2 · 16:55M. Olbrycht1.73912111162J. Chmielowski2.00111498113WSep 2 · 15:45M. Olbrycht1.7391211113J. Witkowski2.001110471LSep 2 · 24:10M. Olbrycht2.00128781M. Rutkowski1.73101111113WSep 1 · 23:20M. Olbrycht1.83111288113K. Kapik1.83710111152
K. Kapik10
LSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113LSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640LSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113WSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123LSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101LSep 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.831111123K. Kapik1.8362100WSep 6 · 15:25D. Jadam1.6766100K. Kapik2.101111113LSep 1 · 23:20M. Olbrycht1.83111288113K. Kapik1.83710111152
Upcoming Matches
M. Olbrycht
Nothing scheduled
K. Kapik
Sep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik2.25K. Glazowski1.57—Sep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik1.90M. Rutkowski1.80—Sep 7 · 17:40K. Kapik1.90K. Staszczyk1.80—Sep 7 · 18:30K. Kapik2.25K. Strowski1.57—Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik1.66K. Kostyk2.10—Sep 7 · 21:25K. Kapik1.90M. Rutkowski1.80—Sep 7 · 22:10K. Kapik1.90K. Staszczyk1.80—Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kapik1.66K. Kostyk2.10—Sep 8 · 24:35K. Kapik1.33B. Sulkowski2.95—
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