TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13053332
Played Sep 2Finished
Michal Olbrycht
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210811711811––
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Olbrycht above · Mateusz Rutkowski below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 78 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Michal Olbrycht 29–30 Mateusz Rutkowski Michal Olbrycht has won 29 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:07What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-30 in 59
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olbrycht 1661 vs Rutkowski 1655
Olbrycht
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olbrycht 60% vs Rutkowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olbrycht 60% vs Rutkowski 40%
Olbrycht
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Olbrycht +1 · Rutkowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlbrycht 2.00 / Rutkowski 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rutkowski)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13053332
Olbrycht2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 94 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 73
Rutkowski1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 387 of 557
Up 2–0, closes it96% 186 of 193
Up 1–0, closes it89% 310 of 350
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOlbrycht4wins
AwayRutkowski6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlbrycht80%4 of 5
AwayRutkowski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olbrycht5Rutkowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Olbrycht3Rutkowski7n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S3Olbrycht4Rutkowski6n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S4Olbrycht2Rutkowski4n = 6Rutkowski took 4 of 6
S5Olbrycht2Rutkowski1n = 3Olbrycht took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricOlbrychtRutkowskiO − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.137.2−1.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlbrychtRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 762 vs 759 / 135147%56.2%358 / 762 vs 759 / 1351Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiOlbrycht 2.00/Rutkowski 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 7 · 22:50M. Olbrycht—10760M. Rutkowski—1211113
LJul 28 · 22:10M. Olbrycht—712741M. Rutkowski—111011113
WJul 27 · 21:25M. Olbrycht—1161111113M. Rutkowski—91191362
WJul 18 · 23:35M. Olbrycht—1181114113M. Rutkowski—41151652
LJul 18 · 21:20M. Olbrycht—11610101M. Rutkowski—41112123
LJul 18 · 18:05M. Olbrycht—4790M. Rutkowski—1111113
LJul 18 · 24:45M. Olbrycht—8850M. Rutkowski—1111113
WJul 17 · 22:30M. Olbrycht—1111113M. Rutkowski—8660
LJun 30 · 23:15M. Olbrycht—1113111182M. Rutkowski—131568113
WJun 30 · 21:00M. Olbrycht—11115113M. Rutkowski—931151
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 3 · 24:35M. Rutkowski1.83911861M. Olbrycht1.8311711113LSep 2 · 22:55J. Kuzmicz1.3612119113M. Olbrycht3.001091131WSep 2 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.108330M. Olbrycht1.671111113WSep 2 · 21:25J. Chmielowski2.20118871M. Olbrycht1.6171111113WSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182LSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.001211113M. Olbrycht1.7310660LSep 2 · 16:55M. Olbrycht1.73912111162J. Chmielowski2.00111498113WSep 2 · 15:45M. Olbrycht1.7391211113J. Witkowski2.001110471WSep 1 · 23:20M. Olbrycht1.83111288113K. Kapik1.83710111152
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380LSep 4 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.801111113M. Rutkowski1.919550WSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961LSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 18:05T. Filbrandt2.101191171M. Rutkowski1.6771113113LSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192LSep 3 · 24:35M. Rutkowski1.83911861M. Olbrycht1.8311711113
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