TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13059492
Played Sep 2Finished
Michal Olbrycht
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111210114117––
Jakub Witkowski
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:34 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Olbrycht to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Olbrycht above · Jakub Witkowski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Michal Olbrycht at 54.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Michal Olbrycht 21–16 Jakub Witkowski Jakub Witkowski has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:34What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Olbrycht
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-16 in 37
Olbrycht
Correct
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olbrycht 1658 vs Witkowski 1543
Olbrycht
Correct
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olbrycht 60% vs Witkowski 20%
Olbrycht
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olbrycht 50% vs Witkowski 30%
Olbrycht
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Olbrycht -1 · Witkowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Olbrycht)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Witkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlbrycht 1.73 / Witkowski 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Olbrycht)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13059492
Olbrycht1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 94 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it83% 70 of 84
Witkowski2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 75 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back17% 20 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOlbrycht5wins
AwayWitkowski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlbrycht100%4 of 4
AwayWitkowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olbrycht4Witkowski6n = 10Witkowski took 6 of 10
S2Olbrycht2Witkowski8n = 10Witkowski took 8 of 10
S3Olbrycht4Witkowski6n = 10Witkowski took 6 of 10
S4Olbrycht1Witkowski3n = 4Witkowski took 3 of 4
S5Olbrycht4Witkowski0n = 4Olbrycht took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricOlbrychtWitkowskiO − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.136.4−1.3per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlbrychtWitkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime359 / 763 vs 391 / 83447.1%46.9%359 / 763 vs 391 / 834Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlbrychtOlbrycht 1.73/Witkowski 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Olbrycht · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Olbrycht won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 7 · 24:40M. Olbrycht—11101110113J. Witkowski—61271242
LMay 6 · 22:15M. Olbrycht—10980J. Witkowski—1211113
WMay 6 · 19:00M. Olbrycht—117117113J. Witkowski—71161162
LApr 30 · 01:30M. Olbrycht—8760J. Witkowski—1111113
WApr 29 · 23:00M. Olbrycht—615711113J. Witkowski—111311552
WApr 29 · 18:35M. Olbrycht—1111113J. Witkowski—6890
LMar 19 · 02:05M. Olbrycht—5770J. Witkowski—1111113
WMar 18 · 23:40M. Olbrycht—166119113J. Witkowski—141161162
LMar 18 · 21:35M. Olbrycht—9890J. Witkowski—1111113
LJan 13 · 24:25M. Olbrycht—9670J. Witkowski—1111113
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 3 · 24:35M. Rutkowski1.83911861M. Olbrycht1.8311711113LSep 2 · 22:55J. Kuzmicz1.3612119113M. Olbrycht3.001091131WSep 2 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.108330M. Olbrycht1.671111113WSep 2 · 21:25J. Chmielowski2.20118871M. Olbrycht1.6171111113WSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182LSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.001211113M. Olbrycht1.7310660LSep 2 · 16:55M. Olbrycht1.73912111162J. Chmielowski2.00111498113LSep 2 · 24:10M. Olbrycht2.00128781M. Rutkowski1.73101111113WSep 1 · 23:20M. Olbrycht1.83111288113K. Kapik1.83710111152
J. Witkowski10
LSep 3 · 20:05J. Witkowski5.00411581M. Benes1.1411911113WSep 3 · 18:30J. Braun1.2011814111J. Witkowski4.33131112133LSep 3 · 17:40P. Klos1.131111113J. Witkowski5.504670WSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:45J. Witkowski2.639813121A. Daniel1.44111111143LSep 3 · 14:40M. Kolek1.91111799113J. Witkowski1.80815111182LSep 3 · 13:30J. Witkowski1.8079120B. Czerwinski1.901111143WSep 3 · 12:15R. Stapor2.156118101J. Witkowski1.6011711123WSep 3 · 11:00A. Lilien2.2014116462J. Witkowski1.601291111113LSep 3 · 09:25A. Mugowski2.451114913113J. Witkowski1.47812111592
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