TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13059407
Played Sep 2Finished
Adrian Spychala
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113911411117117
Michal Olbrycht
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:03 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeAdrian Spychala to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Spychala above · Michal Olbrycht below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 85 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Adrian Spychala at 54.3%
85 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Spychala 12–10 Michal Olbrycht Michal Olbrycht has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Spychala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Spychala
Correct
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spychala 1687 vs Olbrycht 1628
Spychala
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spychala 60% vs Olbrycht 40%
Spychala
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spychala 50% vs Olbrycht 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Spychala -1 · Olbrycht -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Spychala) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpychala 1.73 / Olbrycht 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Spychala)+3.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13059407
Spychala1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 68 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it83% 44 of 53
Olbrycht2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 95 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 150
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpychala4wins
AwayOlbrycht6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOlbrycht leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpychala33.3%1 of 3
AwayOlbrycht57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spychala3Olbrycht7n = 10Olbrycht took 7 of 10
S2Spychala6Olbrycht4n = 10Spychala took 6 of 10
S3Spychala5Olbrycht5n = 10split evenly
S4Spychala3Olbrycht5n = 8Olbrycht took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpychalaOlbrychtS − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.139.3−2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpychalaOlbrychtBasisWin rate · lifetime580 / 1550 vs 359 / 76337.4%47.1%580 / 1550 vs 359 / 763Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpychalaSpychala 1.73/Olbrycht 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Spychala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Spychala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 20:30A. Spychala—971261M. Olbrycht—111110113
WAug 18 · 18:05A. Spychala—81111113M. Olbrycht—119971
WJul 28 · 20:30A. Spychala—101112113M. Olbrycht—1251051
LJul 27 · 18:05A. Spychala—571281M. Olbrycht—111110113
LJul 24 · 11:20A. Spychala—11133962M. Olbrycht—8111111113
LJul 23 · 14:15A. Spychala—13960M. Olbrycht—1511113
LMay 8 · 13:35A. Spychala—12105121M. Olbrycht—101211143
WApr 22 · 14:00A. Spychala—711711113M. Olbrycht—11511792
LApr 22 · 08:45A. Spychala—811841M. Olbrycht—11711113
WApr 21 · 11:05A. Spychala—1111113M. Olbrycht—7850
A. Spychala10
WSep 2 · 19:40A. Spychala1.801211113J. Witkowski1.9110790LSep 2 · 17:20A. Spychala1.83117781K. Kapik1.8371111113WSep 2 · 16:05L. Pietraszko2.63101111652A. Spychala1.44129911113WSep 2 · 15:25A. Spychala1.91411145113J. Chmielowski1.80117121182WSep 2 · 14:35A. Spychala1.7011118113J. Witkowski1.95771171LSep 2 · 13:00A. Spychala1.80116612102M. Kolek1.858111110123WSep 2 · 11:45A. Spychala1.8371111113K. Wisniewski1.86118761LSep 2 · 10:05A. Spychala2.95481591J. Kuzmicz1.33111113113WSep 2 · 09:00A. Spychala2.25101111153D. Prokopcov1.551289131LSep 1 · 20:30A. Spychala2.00971261M. Olbrycht1.73111110113
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 3 · 24:35M. Rutkowski1.83911861M. Olbrycht1.8311711113LSep 2 · 22:55J. Kuzmicz1.3612119113M. Olbrycht3.001091131WSep 2 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.108330M. Olbrycht1.671111113WSep 2 · 21:25J. Chmielowski2.20118871M. Olbrycht1.6171111113WSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182LSep 2 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.001211113M. Olbrycht1.7310660LSep 2 · 16:55M. Olbrycht1.73912111162J. Chmielowski2.00111498113WSep 2 · 15:45M. Olbrycht1.7391211113J. Witkowski2.001110471LSep 2 · 24:10M. Olbrycht2.00128781M. Rutkowski1.73101111113WSep 1 · 20:30A. Spychala2.00971261M. Olbrycht1.73111110113
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