TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13059411
Played Sep 2Finished
Adrian Spychala
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11861161112101012
Maciej Kolek
Away
1.85
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Spychala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
97 points played in total.
Set by set
11861161112101012
H2H Adrian Spychala 1–0 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:04What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Spychala
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Spychala 1703 vs Kolek 1566
Spychala
Wrong
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spychala 40% vs Kolek 20%
Spychala
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spychala 40% vs Kolek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Spychala +1 · Kolek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Spychala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (20%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpychala 1.80 / Kolek 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Spychala)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13059411
Spychala1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite65% won 68 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it83% 44 of 53
Kolek1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 183 of 472
Down 0–1, comes back20% 57 of 279
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 132
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSpychala1wins
AwayKolek0wins
Spychala leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSpychalaKolekS − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match44.039.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpychalaKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime579 / 1547 vs 667 / 135137.4%49.4%579 / 1547 vs 667 / 1351Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.338.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpychalaSpychala 1.80/Kolek 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Spychala · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WFeb 16 · 05:15A. Spychala—81111143M. Kolek—1179121
A. Spychala10
WSep 2 · 19:40A. Spychala1.801211113J. Witkowski1.9110790WSep 2 · 18:30A. Spychala1.73119411113M. Olbrycht2.0031111772LSep 2 · 17:20A. Spychala1.83117781K. Kapik1.8371111113WSep 2 · 16:05L. Pietraszko2.63101111652A. Spychala1.44129911113WSep 2 · 15:25A. Spychala1.91411145113J. Chmielowski1.80117121182WSep 2 · 14:35A. Spychala1.7011118113J. Witkowski1.95771171WSep 2 · 11:45A. Spychala1.8371111113K. Wisniewski1.86118761LSep 2 · 10:05A. Spychala2.95481591J. Kuzmicz1.33111113113WSep 2 · 09:00A. Spychala2.25101111153D. Prokopcov1.551289131LSep 1 · 20:30A. Spychala2.00971261M. Olbrycht1.73111110113
M. Kolek10
WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491LSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113LSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.6189111172M. Kolek2.20111167113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113
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