TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13073967
Played Sep 4Finished
Krystian Kolodziej
Home
1.14
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511113119112––
Maciej Kolek
Away
5.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:04 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeKrystian Kolodziej to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrystian Kolodziej above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 63 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Krystian Kolodziej at 54.4%
63 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Kolodziej 19–4 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 4 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Kolodziej
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-4 in 23
Kolodziej
Correct
gap of 15 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolodziej 1882 vs Kolek 1626
Kolodziej
Correct
both rated, 255 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolodziej 80% vs Kolek 40%
Kolodziej
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolodziej 70% vs Kolek 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolodziej +4 · Kolek +1
Kolodziej
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Kolodziej) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (20%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolodziej 1.14 / Kolek 5.00
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Kolodziej)+5.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13073967
Kolodziej1.14
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite76% won 518 of 682
Up 2–0, closes it98% 321 of 328
Up 1–0, closes it88% 423 of 483
Kolek5.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 185 of 476
Down 0–1, comes back21% 58 of 283
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 134
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolodziej9wins
AwayKolek1wins
Kolodziej leads 9–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolodziej100%8 of 8
AwayKolekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolodziej8Kolek2n = 10Kolodziej took 8 of 10
S2Kolodziej9Kolek1n = 10Kolodziej took 9 of 10
S3Kolodziej9Kolek1n = 10Kolodziej took 9 of 10
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home880%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolodziejKolekKolodziej − KolekBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match32.721.4+11.3per matchSweeps81+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolodziejKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime1329 / 1971 vs 676 / 136367.4%49.6%1329 / 1971 vs 676 / 1363Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolodziejKolodziej 1.14/Kolek 5.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.8%
Kolodziej · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolodziej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 6 · 16:30K. Kolodziej—1111113M. Kolek—4580
WJul 2 · 19:45K. Kolodziej—71311113M. Kolek—1111261
WJun 23 · 18:30K. Kolodziej—1111113M. Kolek—9990
WJun 13 · 19:05K. Kolodziej—1111113M. Kolek—8540
WApr 11 · 16:00K. Kolodziej—1111113M. Kolek—4890
LApr 6 · 23:50K. Kolodziej—8760M. Kolek—1111113
WApr 6 · 21:30K. Kolodziej—1111113M. Kolek—3950
WApr 6 · 02:20K. Kolodziej—1111113M. Kolek—8830
WApr 5 · 23:55K. Kolodziej—1111113M. Kolek—5670
WMar 26 · 19:35K. Kolodziej—1111113M. Kolek—8340
K. Kolodziej10
LSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592WSep 4 · 20:05P. Jendrzejewski2.63471291K. Kolodziej1.44111110113WSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 16:55T. Filbrandt2.63116110K. Kolodziej1.441311133WSep 4 · 15:45A. Grela1.61116100K. Kolodziej2.201311123WSep 4 · 14:35K. Kolodziej2.751181011113A. Dosz1.4061112752WSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113LSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480WSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113WSep 3 · 14:10A. Wiecek1.339980K. Kolodziej3.251111113
M. Kolek10
WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491LSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113WSep 4 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.6189111172M. Kolek2.20111167113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113WSep 3 · 23:45J. Glanowski2.2561060M. Kolek1.571112113
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