TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065174
Played Sep 3Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911811––––
Krystian Kolodziej
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:31 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Krystian Kolodziej below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 59 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Adrian Wiecek at 73.3%
59 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 21–7 Krystian Kolodziej Krystian Kolodziej has won 7 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:31What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Wiecek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-7 in 28
Wiecek
Wrong
gap of 14 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1894 vs Kolodziej 1823
Wiecek
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 40% vs Kolodziej 20%
Wiecek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 50% vs Kolodziej 30%
Wiecek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek +1 · Kolodziej -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Wiecek) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.33 / Kolodziej 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 28%
Edge (Wiecek)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13065174
Wiecek1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 210 of 335
Up 2–0, closes it96% 85 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it79% 152 of 192
Kolodziej3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 67 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back21% 23 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek8wins
AwayKolodziej2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderWiecek leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek87.5%7 of 8
AwayKolodziejn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek8Kolodziej2n = 10Wiecek took 8 of 10
S2Wiecek8Kolodziej2n = 10Wiecek took 8 of 10
S3Wiecek6Kolodziej4n = 10Wiecek took 6 of 10
S4Wiecek4Kolodziej3n = 7Wiecek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekKolodziejW − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.635.1+4.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekKolodziejBasisWin rate · lifetime780 / 1416 vs 1326 / 197155.1%67.3%780 / 1416 vs 1326 / 1971Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekWiecek 1.33/Kolodziej 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.5%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kolodziej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 11 · 15:30A. Wiecek—1111113K. Kolodziej—8890
WApr 13 · 18:15A. Wiecek—61111113K. Kolodziej—117891
WApr 6 · 17:00A. Wiecek—11115143K. Kolodziej—9411121
LMar 30 · 18:35A. Wiecek—11712962K. Kolodziej—5111011113
WMar 23 · 16:55A. Wiecek—11118123K. Kolodziej—9411101
LMar 16 · 16:55A. Wiecek—1091391K. Kolodziej—121111113
WMar 9 · 19:15A. Wiecek—1112113K. Kolodziej—91090
WMar 2 · 17:40A. Wiecek—11119113K. Kolodziej—871191
WFeb 18 · 16:55A. Wiecek—1211103K. Kolodziej—10750
WFeb 9 · 20:00A. Wiecek—111158113K. Kolodziej—97111152
A. Wiecek10
LSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113WSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172WSep 4 · 11:15A. Grela1.838680A. Wiecek1.831111113LSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113LSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.9111511113M. Jadczyk1.80911581LSep 4 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.9111311992A. Grela1.80811811113WSep 4 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.40111011113S. Dosz2.75712591LSep 4 · 03:00A. Wiecek2.00951151A. Dosz1.7311118113
K. Kolodziej10
LSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592WSep 4 · 20:05P. Jendrzejewski2.63471291K. Kolodziej1.44111110113WSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:55T. Filbrandt2.63116110K. Kolodziej1.441311133WSep 4 · 15:45A. Grela1.61116100K. Kolodziej2.201311123WSep 4 · 14:35K. Kolodziej2.751181011113A. Dosz1.4061112752WSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113LSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480WSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113
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