TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070602
Played Sep 4Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119911119––
Dawid Michna
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 59.2% is still 59.2%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
59.2%
59.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Adrian Wiecek at 59.2%
79 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 41–20 Dawid Michna Dawid Michna has won 20 of their 61 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:38What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Wiecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-20 in 61
Wiecek
Correct
gap of 21 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1891 vs Michna 1958
Michna
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 60% vs Michna 80%
Michna
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 50% vs Michna 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek +2 · Michna +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Wiecek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.44 / Michna 2.63
Signal prob.64% / 37%
Edge (Wiecek)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13070602
Wiecek1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 210 of 338
Up 2–0, closes it96% 85 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it79% 152 of 193
Michna2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 119 of 225
Down 0–1, comes back37% 44 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back14% 7 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek5wins
AwayMichna5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek50%4 of 8
AwayMichnan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek8Michna2n = 10Wiecek took 8 of 10
S2Wiecek3Michna7n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S3Wiecek4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S4Wiecek6Michna4n = 10Wiecek took 6 of 10
S5Wiecek2Michna3n = 5Michna took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekMichnaW − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.443.40.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime785 / 1427 vs 532 / 97855%54.4%785 / 1427 vs 532 / 978Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekWiecek 1.44/Michna 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.5%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 28 · 12:55A. Wiecek—129151192D. Michna—1011179113
WJul 28 · 06:05A. Wiecek—113129113D. Michna—911101172
WJul 15 · 11:40A. Wiecek—11411113D. Michna—711771
LJul 15 · 04:55A. Wiecek—91131172D. Michna—116119113
WJul 7 · 13:45A. Wiecek—111115113D. Michna—891781
LJul 7 · 03:00A. Wiecek—149113102D. Michna—1211911123
WJul 6 · 14:35A. Wiecek—811811113D. Michna—11411762
LJul 6 · 05:45A. Wiecek—118871D. Michna—71111113
LJul 6 · 03:45A. Wiecek—118871D. Michna—71111113
WJun 17 · 12:05A. Wiecek—11911113D. Michna—811851
A. Wiecek10
LSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113WSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172WSep 4 · 11:15A. Grela1.838680A. Wiecek1.831111113LSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113LSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.9111511113M. Jadczyk1.80911581LSep 4 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.9111311992A. Grela1.80811811113WSep 4 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.40111011113S. Dosz2.75712591LSep 4 · 03:00A. Wiecek2.00951151A. Dosz1.7311118113LSep 3 · 14:10A. Wiecek1.339980K. Kolodziej3.251111113
D. Michna10
LSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113WSep 4 · 12:55A. Grela1.6112611642D. Michna2.201011911113WSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480LSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771LSep 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.831112115123D. Michna1.83914911102WSep 4 · 04:55A. Grela1.738770D. Michna2.001111113LSep 4 · 03:25S. Dosz2.2511311113D. Michna1.57911491LSep 3 · 13:45P. David1.4413711143D. Michna2.6311113121
Upcoming Matches
A. Wiecek1 of 1 neutral
D. Michna
Nothing scheduled
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