TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065142
Played Sep 3Finished
Petr David
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13117111131412––
Dawid Michna
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:31 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr David above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 82 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Petr David at 62.9%
82 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 14–14 Dawid Michna Dead even across their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:31What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
David
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-14 in 28
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
David 1957 vs Michna 1941
David
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 40% vs Michna 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 50% vs Michna 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
David -1 · Michna -3
Michna
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans David) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- David form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 1.44 / Michna 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (David)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13065142
David1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 242 of 358
Up 2–0, closes it97% 126 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it83% 186 of 225
Michna2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog53% won 117 of 219
Down 0–1, comes back38% 43 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back15% 7 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDavid5wins
AwayMichna5wins
8 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDavid60%3 of 5
AwayMichna60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1David5Michna5n = 10split evenly
S2David6Michna4n = 10David took 6 of 10
S3David7Michna3n = 10David took 7 of 10
S4David2Michna8n = 10Michna took 8 of 10
S5David4Michna4n = 8split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDavidMichnaD − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.044.7+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime646 / 984 vs 533 / 97965.7%54.4%646 / 984 vs 533 / 979Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DavidDavid 1.44/Michna 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 08:30P. David—1011861D. Michna—12711113
LAug 27 · 11:40P. David—121211762D. Michna—1410511113
LAug 27 · 06:30P. David—111112482D. Michna—5131011113
LJun 12 · 11:10P. David—61281162D. Michna—1110119113
WJun 12 · 05:40P. David—813115113D. Michna—111121172
LFeb 3 · 08:40P. David—11811972D. Michna—511711113
WJan 4 · 15:05P. David—115118113D. Michna—91181172
WJan 4 · 06:50P. David—119139113D. Michna—911111192
WJan 3 · 12:10P. David—11119113D. Michna—661191
WJan 3 · 07:40P. David—211118113D. Michna—11251182
P. David10
LSep 7 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.831212113P. David1.83101090WSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113WSep 7 · 04:55P. David1.081111113G. Poliniewicz7.003690LSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113LSep 3 · 12:30P. David1.571081161A. Wiecek2.2512117113WSep 3 · 11:15P. David1.3011116113K. Kolodziej3.40871151WSep 3 · 10:00A. Dosz2.001110761P. David1.7391211113LSep 3 · 09:20P. David1.367117101S. Dosz3.0011411123LSep 3 · 08:30P. David1.501011861D. Michna2.5012711113WSep 3 · 06:55P. David1.9111812113M. Jadczyk1.808111051
D. Michna10
LSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:55A. Grela1.6112611642D. Michna2.201011911113WSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480LSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771LSep 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.831112115123D. Michna1.83914911102WSep 4 · 04:55A. Grela1.738770D. Michna2.001111113WSep 3 · 08:30P. David1.501011861D. Michna2.5012711113
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