TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065125
Played Sep 3Finished
Petr David
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118117611115––
Krystian Kolodziej
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:30 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr David above · Krystian Kolodziej below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 70 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Petr David at 79.4%
70 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 19–1 Krystian Kolodziej Krystian Kolodziej has won 1 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:30What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
David
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-1 in 20
David
Correct
gap of 18 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
David 1964 vs Kolodziej 1839
David
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 40% vs Kolodziej 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 60% vs Kolodziej 40%
David
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
David +1 · Kolodziej +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans David) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 1.30 / Kolodziej 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (David)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13065125
David1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 242 of 358
Up 2–0, closes it97% 126 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it83% 186 of 225
Kolodziej3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 67 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back21% 23 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDavid9wins
AwayKolodziej1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDavid leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDavid100%8 of 8
AwayKolodziejn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1David8Kolodziej2n = 10David took 8 of 10
S2David6Kolodziej4n = 10David took 6 of 10
S3David7Kolodziej3n = 10David took 7 of 10
S4David5Kolodziej0n = 5David took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDavidKolodziejD − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.227.3+11.9per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidKolodziejBasisWin rate · lifetime646 / 984 vs 1326 / 196965.7%67.3%646 / 984 vs 1326 / 1969Avg sets wonper match2.42.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DavidDavid 1.30/Kolodziej 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WFeb 22 · 20:30P. David—1211113K. Kolodziej—10860
WJan 20 · 16:55P. David—119711113K. Kolodziej—21111652
WJul 14 · 19:00P. David—111711113K. Kolodziej—519521
WJul 6 · 19:50P. David—11118113K. Kolodziej—491151
WJun 22 · 17:05P. David—1111113K. Kolodziej—8740
WJun 10 · 16:40P. David—1111113K. Kolodziej—8650
WJun 4 · 15:55P. David—1111123K. Kolodziej—94100
WJun 1 · 16:00P. David—91111113K. Kolodziej—113561
WMay 11 · 17:05P. David—11911123K. Kolodziej—4114101
LMay 6 · 18:35P. David—91590K. Kolodziej—1117113
P. David10
WSep 8 · 08:05A. Wiecek2.508121161P. David1.5011146113WSep 8 · 07:20M. Olejnik2.008101181P. David1.7311125113WSep 8 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.61111197102P. David2.20651111123LSep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.751111610113P. David1.4047111262WSep 8 · 03:00J. Kosowski2.3811611642P. David1.53711711113WSep 7 · 14:35P. David1.611111143J. Kosowski2.2097120LSep 7 · 12:55P. David2.201297101J. Folwarski1.61101111123LSep 7 · 11:40P. David1.3061381162K. Kolodziej3.401111115113WSep 7 · 10:00P. David1.73141711113S. Kolasa2.001219361LSep 7 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.831212113P. David1.83101090
K. Kolodziej10
LSep 7 · 12:30S. Kolasa1.734111110113K. Kolodziej2.0011251282WSep 7 · 11:40P. David1.3061381162K. Kolodziej3.401111115113LSep 7 · 10:50K. Kolodziej3.259780J. Kosowski1.331111113LSep 7 · 09:40K. Kolodziej4.5011781192J. Folwarski1.17511117113LSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592WSep 4 · 20:05P. Jendrzejewski2.63471291K. Kolodziej1.44111110113WSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:55T. Filbrandt2.63116110K. Kolodziej1.441311133WSep 4 · 15:45A. Grela1.61116100K. Kolodziej2.201311123
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