TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092305
Played Sep 8Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111214116611––
Petr David
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Petr David below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 79 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Petr David at 63.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 37–66 Petr David Adrian Wiecek has won 37 of their 103 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:29What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
David
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-66 in 103
David
Correct
gap of 29 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1874 vs David 1974
David
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 20% vs David 80%
David
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 40% vs David 60%
David
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek -1 · David +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans David) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- David form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 2.50 / David 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (David)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13092305
Wiecek2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 88 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
David1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 238 of 353
Up 2–0, closes it97% 122 of 126
Up 1–0, closes it82% 180 of 219
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek3wins
AwayDavid7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDavid leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek75%3 of 4
AwayDavid100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek4David6n = 10David took 6 of 10
S2Wiecek4David6n = 10David took 6 of 10
S3Wiecek5David5n = 10split evenly
S4Wiecek3David6n = 9David took 6 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekDavidW − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.440.9−4.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekDavidBasisWin rate · lifetime776 / 1406 vs 652 / 99255.2%65.7%776 / 1406 vs 652 / 992Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DavidWiecek 2.50/David 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 12:30A. Wiecek—12117113P. David—1081161
WAug 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek—12116123P. David—10911101
LAug 4 · 03:25A. Wiecek—51050P. David—1112113
LJul 1 · 13:45A. Wiecek—13118121P. David—15911143
LJul 1 · 08:30A. Wiecek—931161P. David—11118113
LJun 30 · 11:40A. Wiecek—1115741P. David—91711113
LJun 30 · 04:55A. Wiecek—1011113102P. David—127611123
WJun 10 · 10:25A. Wiecek—11811113P. David—511681
LJun 10 · 06:40A. Wiecek—9711101P. David—11116123
LMay 20 · 13:40A. Wiecek—1141131P. David—13119113
A. Wiecek10
LSep 8 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.448111110123A. Wiecek2.63118912102WSep 8 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.677121191A. Wiecek2.1011146113LSep 8 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.109580M. Olejnik1.671111113LSep 8 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.00181174102T. Spanik1.731691111123LSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113WSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172WSep 4 · 11:15A. Grela1.838680A. Wiecek1.831111113LSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113LSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113
P. David10
WSep 8 · 07:20M. Olejnik2.008101181P. David1.7311125113WSep 8 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.61111197102P. David2.20651111123LSep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.751111610113P. David1.4047111262WSep 8 · 03:00J. Kosowski2.3811611642P. David1.53711711113WSep 7 · 14:35P. David1.611111143J. Kosowski2.2097120LSep 7 · 12:55P. David2.201297101J. Folwarski1.61101111123LSep 7 · 11:40P. David1.3061381162K. Kolodziej3.401111115113WSep 7 · 10:00P. David1.73141711113S. Kolasa2.001219361LSep 7 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.831212113P. David1.83101090WSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113
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