TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091662
Played Sep 8Finished
Jakub Folwarski
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81111811910121210
Adrian Wiecek
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:47 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Folwarski above · Adrian Wiecek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 102 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Jakub Folwarski at 57.1%
102 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Folwarski 23–15 Adrian Wiecek Adrian Wiecek has won 15 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:47What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Folwarski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-15 in 38
Folwarski
Correct
gap of 8 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Folwarski 2151 vs Wiecek 1874
Folwarski
Correct
both rated, 277 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Folwarski 80% vs Wiecek 40%
Folwarski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Folwarski 70% vs Wiecek 50%
Folwarski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Folwarski -1 · Wiecek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Folwarski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Folwarski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFolwarski 1.44 / Wiecek 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Folwarski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13091662
Folwarski1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite76% won 178 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it99% 73 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it88% 104 of 118
Wiecek2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 88 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFolwarski8wins
AwayWiecek2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFolwarski leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFolwarski80%4 of 5
AwayWiecek20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Folwarski5Wiecek5n = 10split evenly
S2Folwarski6Wiecek4n = 10Folwarski took 6 of 10
S3Folwarski8Wiecek2n = 10Folwarski took 8 of 10
S4Folwarski4Wiecek5n = 9Wiecek took 5 of 9
S5Folwarski3Wiecek0n = 3Folwarski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFolwarskiWiecekF − WBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.238.5+2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFolwarskiWiecekBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 402 vs 776 / 140674.4%55.2%299 / 402 vs 776 / 1406Avg sets wonper match2.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.240.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiFolwarski 1.44/Wiecek 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Folwarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 06:30J. Folwarski—8111110123A. Wiecek—118912102
WAug 12 · 12:00J. Folwarski—1011115113A. Wiecek—12591172
LJul 22 · 09:20J. Folwarski—781181A. Wiecek—11117113
WJul 16 · 13:45J. Folwarski—12115113A. Wiecek—1051151
WJul 16 · 08:30J. Folwarski—11611113A. Wiecek—911841
WJul 15 · 14:35J. Folwarski—713114113A. Wiecek—111191162
WMay 20 · 12:00J. Folwarski—11811113A. Wiecek—511991
LMay 20 · 04:20J. Folwarski—158661A. Wiecek—131111113
WMar 18 · 11:25J. Folwarski—1115113A. Wiecek—71360
WMar 18 · 09:00J. Folwarski—51211133A. Wiecek—11102111
J. Folwarski10
WSep 8 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4411115113T. Spanik2.63571181LSep 8 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.61111197102P. David2.20651111123WSep 8 · 04:10J. Kosowski2.3881151182J. Folwarski1.53115119113WSep 8 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.25611911113M. Olejnik3.7511511892WSep 7 · 13:45S. Kolasa3.251638101J. Folwarski1.33141111123WSep 7 · 12:55P. David2.201297101J. Folwarski1.61101111123LSep 7 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.5711811982J. Kosowski2.25911711113WSep 7 · 09:40K. Kolodziej4.5011781192J. Folwarski1.17511117113WAug 13 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.201111113K. Kolodziej4.338790LAug 13 · 12:30J. Folwarski1.3313711862M. Benes3.251111211113
A. Wiecek10
WSep 8 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.677121191A. Wiecek2.1011146113LSep 8 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.109580M. Olejnik1.671111113LSep 8 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.00181174102T. Spanik1.731691111123LSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113WSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172WSep 4 · 11:15A. Grela1.838680A. Wiecek1.831111113LSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113LSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.9111511113M. Jadczyk1.80911581
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