TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091664
Played Sep 8Finished
Jakub Kosowski
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811115511119811
Jakub Folwarski
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kosowski above · Jakub Folwarski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 90 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jakub Folwarski at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kosowski 7–9 Jakub Folwarski Jakub Kosowski has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 16h before this match
Kosowski beat Folwarski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:47What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Folwarski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Folwarski
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosowski 1974 vs Folwarski 2160
Folwarski
Correct
both rated, 187 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosowski 60% vs Folwarski 80%
Folwarski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosowski 70% vs Folwarski 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosowski -2 · Folwarski +3
Folwarski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Folwarski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Folwarski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosowski 2.38 / Folwarski 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Folwarski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13091664
Kosowski2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 42 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Folwarski1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite76% won 174 of 228
Up 2–0, closes it99% 73 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it89% 104 of 117
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosowski5wins
AwayFolwarski5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosowski57.1%4 of 7
AwayFolwarski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosowski7Folwarski3n = 10Kosowski took 7 of 10
S2Kosowski4Folwarski6n = 10Folwarski took 6 of 10
S3Kosowski4Folwarski6n = 10Folwarski took 6 of 10
S4Kosowski2Folwarski4n = 6Folwarski took 4 of 6
S5Kosowski3Folwarski2n = 5Kosowski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosowskiFolwarskiK − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.840.0−3.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosowskiFolwarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime746 / 1263 vs 297 / 39959.1%74.4%746 / 1263 vs 297 / 399Avg sets wonper match2.22.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiKosowski 2.38/Folwarski 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Folwarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 3 · 10:25J. Kosowski—115117123J. Folwarski—811511102
LJun 3 · 13:40J. Kosowski—1940J. Folwarski—1111113
WJun 3 · 09:35J. Kosowski—1113113J. Folwarski—91180
LApr 22 · 10:25J. Kosowski—69100J. Folwarski—1111123
WApr 4 · 05:05J. Kosowski—111197143J. Folwarski—471111122
LApr 3 · 14:50J. Kosowski—121211472J. Folwarski—1014911113
WApr 3 · 08:35J. Kosowski—711511113J. Folwarski—11611992
LMar 18 · 14:15J. Kosowski—116101132J. Folwarski—611124113
LMar 18 · 08:15J. Kosowski—118471J. Folwarski—91111113
WDec 23 · 07:15J. Kosowski—1111123J. Folwarski—99100
J. Kosowski10
LSep 8 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.677121191A. Wiecek2.1011146113LSep 8 · 03:00J. Kosowski2.3811611642P. David1.53711711113LSep 7 · 14:35P. David1.611111143J. Kosowski2.2097120WSep 7 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.5711811982J. Kosowski2.25911711113WSep 7 · 10:50K. Kolodziej3.259780J. Kosowski1.331111113WSep 7 · 09:20S. Kolasa2.1011760J. Kosowski1.671311113WSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871WSep 7 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.831212113P. David1.83101090WSep 7 · 04:10S. Kolasa2.386270J. Kosowski1.531111113WSep 7 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.281211133G. Poliniewicz3.50107110
J. Folwarski10
LSep 8 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.61111197102P. David2.20651111123WSep 8 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.25611911113M. Olejnik3.7511511892WSep 7 · 13:45S. Kolasa3.251638101J. Folwarski1.33141111123WSep 7 · 12:55P. David2.201297101J. Folwarski1.61101111123LSep 7 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.5711811982J. Kosowski2.25911711113WSep 7 · 09:40K. Kolodziej4.5011781192J. Folwarski1.17511117113WAug 13 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.201111113K. Kolodziej4.338790LAug 13 · 12:30J. Folwarski1.3313711862M. Benes3.251111211113WAug 13 · 11:15J. Folwarski1.6171111113G. Felkel2.20118791WAug 13 · 10:00A. Abbasi2.637870J. Folwarski1.441111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Kosowski
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J. Folwarski
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