TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091165
Played Sep 8Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
18161197114111012
Tibor Spanik
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 18-16
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 109 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Adrian Wiecek at 54.0%
109 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 12–11 Tibor Spanik Tibor Spanik has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:06What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Spanik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1891 vs Spanik 1842
Wiecek
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 60% vs Spanik 40%
Wiecek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 50% vs Spanik 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek -1 · Spanik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 2.00 / Spanik 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Spanik)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13091165
Wiecek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 88 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Spanik1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 147 of 256
Up 2–0, closes it92% 71 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it76% 106 of 140
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek6wins
AwaySpanik4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderWiecek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek83.3%5 of 6
AwaySpanik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek6Spanik4n = 10Wiecek took 6 of 10
S2Wiecek4Spanik6n = 10Spanik took 6 of 10
S3Wiecek5Spanik5n = 10split evenly
S4Wiecek5Spanik3n = 8Wiecek took 5 of 8
S5Wiecek3Spanik2n = 5Wiecek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekSpanikW − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.841.3+2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime776 / 1407 vs 225 / 40455.2%55.7%776 / 1407 vs 225 / 404Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikWiecek 2.00/Spanik 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 14:10A. Wiecek—117711113T. Spanik—71111562
LAug 18 · 05:15A. Wiecek—89111192T. Spanik—111177113
WAug 17 · 14:35A. Wiecek—14118113T. Spanik—1281181
LAug 17 · 06:30A. Wiecek—1011101192T. Spanik—129125113
WJun 2 · 12:25A. Wiecek—1112113T. Spanik—81070
LJun 2 · 05:05A. Wiecek—48100T. Spanik—1111123
WJun 1 · 13:15A. Wiecek—91111183T. Spanik—1198161
LJun 1 · 05:50A. Wiecek—11121091T. Spanik—21412113
WMay 25 · 14:05A. Wiecek—116149113T. Spanik—711121172
WMay 25 · 05:50A. Wiecek—117119123T. Spanik—811811102
A. Wiecek10
LSep 8 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.109580M. Olejnik1.671111113LSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113WSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172WSep 4 · 11:15A. Grela1.838680A. Wiecek1.831111113LSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113LSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.9111511113M. Jadczyk1.80911581LSep 4 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.9111311992A. Grela1.80811811113WSep 4 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.40111011113S. Dosz2.75712591
T. Spanik10
WSep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.751111610113P. David1.4047111262WAug 31 · 13:45T. Spanik1.61101111113M. Jadczyk2.20123431LAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik1.831110111562K. Petas1.831312613113WAug 31 · 11:15T. Spanik1.731111113K. Wloczko2.007540LAug 31 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.671110711113T. Spanik2.1081211942LAug 31 · 09:20T. Spanik1.5711771182K. Strowski2.25511114113WAug 31 · 08:30T. Spanik1.73811911113K. Petas2.0011811762LAug 31 · 06:55T. Spanik1.7371111161M. Jadczyk2.0011135183LAug 31 · 05:40T. Spanik2.25511661J. Kosowski1.5711511113WAug 31 · 04:10T. Spanik1.4011114113D. Kosmal2.751151241
Upcoming Matches
A. Wiecek
Sep 8 · 05:40A. Wiecek2.10J. Kosowski1.67—Sep 8 · 06:30A. Wiecek2.63J. Folwarski1.44—Sep 8 · 08:05A. Wiecek2.50P. David1.50—Sep 8 · 09:20A. Wiecek2.10J. Kosowski1.67—Sep 8 · 10:50A. Wiecek1.40K. Wloczko2.75—Sep 8 · 12:05A. Wiecek2.10M. Olejnik1.67—Sep 8 · 13:20A. Wiecek1.33K. Kolodziej3.25—Sep 8 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.00T. Spanik1.73—
T. Spanik
Sep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 06:55T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 07:45T. Spanik2.63J. Folwarski1.44—Sep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik1.61K. Kolodziej2.20—Sep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 11:40T. Spanik1.73K. Wloczko2.00—Sep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—
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