TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13047709
Played Aug 31Finished
Tibor Spanik
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012113114113––
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 65 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 21–17 Marcin Jadczyk Marcin Jadczyk has won 17 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:43What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Spanik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-17 in 38
Spanik
Correct
gap of 4 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1839 vs Jadczyk 1875
Jadczyk
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 40% vs Jadczyk 60%
Jadczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 40% vs Jadczyk 60%
Jadczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik -1 · Jadczyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 1.61 / Jadczyk 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Spanik)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13047709
Spanik1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 147 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it92% 72 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it77% 108 of 141
Jadczyk2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 143 of 314
Down 0–1, comes back28% 42 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpanik4wins
AwayJadczyk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJadczyk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanik66.7%2 of 3
AwayJadczyk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik3Jadczyk6n = 9Jadczyk took 6 of 9
S2Spanik6Jadczyk3n = 9Spanik took 6 of 9
S3Spanik2Jadczyk7n = 9Jadczyk took 7 of 9
S4Spanik6Jadczyk2n = 8Spanik took 6 of 8
S5Spanik0Jadczyk3n = 3Jadczyk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpanikJadczykS − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match38.141.1−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 403 vs 965 / 164855.6%58.6%224 / 403 vs 965 / 1648Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikSpanik 1.61/Jadczyk 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 31 · 06:55T. Spanik—71111161M. Jadczyk—11135183
WAug 30 · 10:25T. Spanik—11125113M. Jadczyk—9101151
LAug 30 · 04:30T. Spanik—3460M. Jadczyk—1111113
LAug 17 · 12:05T. Spanik—61181152M. Jadczyk—119119113
WAug 17 · 07:45T. Spanik—16113123M. Jadczyk—14511101
WAug 7 · 15:00T. Spanik—81311113M. Jadczyk—1111651
LAug 7 · 06:55T. Spanik—81181152M. Jadczyk—117114113
LAug 6 · 12:55T. Spanik—111171162M. Jadczyk—613116113
LJun 22 · 13:45T. Spanik—711581M. Jadczyk—11711113
T. Spanik10
LAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik1.831110111562K. Petas1.831312613113WAug 31 · 11:15T. Spanik1.731111113K. Wloczko2.007540LAug 31 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.671110711113T. Spanik2.1081211942LAug 31 · 09:20T. Spanik1.5711771182K. Strowski2.25511114113WAug 31 · 08:30T. Spanik1.73811911113K. Petas2.0011811762LAug 31 · 06:55T. Spanik1.7371111161M. Jadczyk2.0011135183LAug 31 · 05:40T. Spanik2.25511661J. Kosowski1.5711511113WAug 31 · 04:10T. Spanik1.4011114113D. Kosmal2.751151241WAug 31 · 03:00T. Spanik1.671111113K. Wloczko2.109950LAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282WSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113LSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182LSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113WSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WAug 31 · 06:55T. Spanik1.7371111161M. Jadczyk2.0011135183
Upcoming Matches
T. Spanik
Sep 8 · 03:45T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—Sep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.75P. David1.40—Sep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 06:55T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 07:45T. Spanik2.63J. Folwarski1.44—Sep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik1.61K. Kolodziej2.20—Sep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 11:40T. Spanik1.73K. Wloczko2.00—Sep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—
M. Jadczyk
Nothing scheduled
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