TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13047680
Played Aug 31Finished
Jakub Kosowski
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181012711119114
Tibor Spanik
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:46 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Kosowski to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kosowski above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 94 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Jakub Kosowski at 58.1%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kosowski 10–9 Tibor Spanik Tibor Spanik has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:46What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kosowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosowski 1888 vs Spanik 1809
Kosowski
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosowski 80% vs Spanik 40%
Kosowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosowski 60% vs Spanik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosowski +1 · Spanik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kosowski) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosowski 1.67 / Spanik 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Kosowski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13047680
Kosowski1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 282 of 434
Up 2–0, closes it94% 132 of 140
Up 1–0, closes it85% 219 of 258
Spanik2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 74 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back29% 20 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosowski5wins
AwaySpanik5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosowski83.3%5 of 6
AwaySpanik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosowski6Spanik4n = 10Kosowski took 6 of 10
S2Kosowski3Spanik7n = 10Spanik took 7 of 10
S3Kosowski5Spanik5n = 10split evenly
S4Kosowski5Spanik4n = 9Kosowski took 5 of 9
S5Kosowski3Spanik3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosowskiSpanikK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.040.3+1.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosowskiSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime752 / 1272 vs 223 / 40159.1%55.6%752 / 1272 vs 223 / 401Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosowskiKosowski 1.67/Spanik 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Kosowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kosowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 11:40J. Kosowski—97111182T. Spanik—111198113
LAug 6 · 04:55J. Kosowski—611151T. Spanik—11117113
LAug 2 · 12:55J. Kosowski—111281092T. Spanik—7101112113
WAug 2 · 04:55J. Kosowski—111279113T. Spanik—510111132
WJul 20 · 09:20J. Kosowski—1191011113T. Spanik—81112512
WJul 20 · 05:40J. Kosowski—11611183T. Spanik—3114161
WJun 2 · 14:30J. Kosowski—115811113T. Spanik—91111242
LJun 2 · 07:40J. Kosowski—4111510102T. Spanik—1141312123
LJun 1 · 14:05J. Kosowski—6680T. Spanik—1111113
WJun 1 · 07:15J. Kosowski—11411113T. Spanik—611931
J. Kosowski10
WSep 7 · 10:50K. Kolodziej3.259780J. Kosowski1.331111113WSep 7 · 09:20S. Kolasa2.1011760J. Kosowski1.671311113WSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871WSep 7 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.831212113P. David1.83101090WSep 7 · 04:10S. Kolasa2.386270J. Kosowski1.531111113WSep 7 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.281211133G. Poliniewicz3.50107110LSep 1 · 13:45J. Kosowski1.731145111K. Petas2.0071111133LSep 1 · 12:30J. Kosowski1.368680K. Kolodziej3.001111113WSep 1 · 11:15J. Kosowski1.2013714113K. Glazowski4.3311111291LSep 1 · 10:00P. Cyrnek1.8371111113J. Kosowski1.83116571
T. Spanik10
WAug 31 · 13:45T. Spanik1.61101111113M. Jadczyk2.20123431LAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik1.831110111562K. Petas1.831312613113WAug 31 · 11:15T. Spanik1.731111113K. Wloczko2.007540LAug 31 · 09:20T. Spanik1.5711771182K. Strowski2.25511114113WAug 31 · 08:30T. Spanik1.73811911113K. Petas2.0011811762LAug 31 · 06:55T. Spanik1.7371111161M. Jadczyk2.0011135183LAug 31 · 05:40T. Spanik2.25511661J. Kosowski1.5711511113WAug 31 · 04:10T. Spanik1.4011114113D. Kosmal2.751151241WAug 31 · 03:00T. Spanik1.671111113K. Wloczko2.109950LAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150
Upcoming Matches
J. Kosowski
Sep 7 · 12:05J. Kosowski2.25J. Folwarski1.57—Sep 7 · 13:20J. Kosowski1.73J. Zandecki2.00—Sep 7 · 14:35J. Kosowski2.20P. David1.61—Sep 8 · 03:00J. Kosowski2.20P. David1.61—Sep 8 · 04:10J. Kosowski2.25J. Folwarski1.57—Sep 8 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.67A. Wiecek2.10—Sep 8 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.73T. Spanik2.00—Sep 8 · 08:30J. Kosowski2.10M. Olejnik1.67—Sep 8 · 09:20J. Kosowski1.67A. Wiecek2.10—Sep 8 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.73T. Spanik2.00—
T. Spanik
Sep 8 · 03:45T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—Sep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.75P. David1.40—Sep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 06:55T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 07:45T. Spanik—J. Folwarski——Sep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik—K. Kolodziej——Sep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 11:40T. Spanik1.73K. Wloczko2.00—Sep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—
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