TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13047604
Played Aug 31Finished
Tibor Spanik
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811118911117116
Kacper Petas
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Kacper Petas below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 93 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 13–4 Kacper Petas Kacper Petas has won 4 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:35What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Spanik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-4 in 17
Spanik
Correct
gap of 9 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1829 vs Petas 1834
Petas
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 40% vs Petas 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 60% vs Petas 40%
Spanik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik -2 · Petas -3
Petas
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 1.73 / Petas 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Spanik)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13047604
Spanik1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 147 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it92% 72 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it77% 108 of 141
Petas2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 129 of 277
Down 0–1, comes back19% 25 of 133
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpanik6wins
AwayPetas4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanik100%4 of 4
AwayPetas66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik4Petas6n = 10Petas took 6 of 10
S2Spanik3Petas7n = 10Petas took 7 of 10
S3Spanik4Petas6n = 10Petas took 6 of 10
S4Spanik5Petas2n = 7Spanik took 5 of 7
S5Spanik3Petas0n = 3Spanik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpanikPetasS − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.937.6−0.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikPetasBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 398 vs 709 / 135355.8%52.4%222 / 398 vs 709 / 1353Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikSpanik 1.73/Petas 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 21 · 12:05T. Spanik—711761K. Petas—11911113
WJun 21 · 09:40T. Spanik—711911113K. Petas—11711652
WJun 21 · 07:20T. Spanik—911117113K. Petas—11491192
LJun 21 · 04:55T. Spanik—6750K. Petas—1111113
WJun 20 · 11:15T. Spanik—12813113K. Petas—10111191
WJun 20 · 09:00T. Spanik—118611113K. Petas—91111852
LJun 20 · 07:20T. Spanik—10890K. Petas—1211113
LJun 20 · 04:55T. Spanik—8590K. Petas—1111113
WJun 19 · 14:35T. Spanik—11811113K. Petas—811571
WJun 19 · 06:30T. Spanik—11811113K. Petas—611891
T. Spanik10
WAug 31 · 13:45T. Spanik1.61101111113M. Jadczyk2.20123431LAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik1.831110111562K. Petas1.831312613113WAug 31 · 11:15T. Spanik1.731111113K. Wloczko2.007540LAug 31 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.671110711113T. Spanik2.1081211942LAug 31 · 09:20T. Spanik1.5711771182K. Strowski2.25511114113LAug 31 · 06:55T. Spanik1.7371111161M. Jadczyk2.0011135183LAug 31 · 05:40T. Spanik2.25511661J. Kosowski1.5711511113WAug 31 · 04:10T. Spanik1.4011114113D. Kosmal2.751151241WAug 31 · 03:00T. Spanik1.671111113K. Wloczko2.109950LAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150
K. Petas10
WSep 1 · 13:45J. Kosowski1.731145111K. Petas2.0071111133WSep 1 · 12:55P. Cyrnek1.61811571K. Petas2.2011511113WSep 1 · 12:05K. Petas1.50119116113K. Strowski2.5091161142LSep 1 · 10:25K. Petas1.50101110111K. Glazowski2.5012412133WSep 1 · 09:40K. Kolodziej1.671151271K. Petas2.10131110113LSep 1 · 08:30J. Kosowski1.7311611113K. Petas2.00911881WSep 1 · 07:20K. Petas1.501110118113J. Kuzmicz2.5081271162LSep 1 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.61118911113K. Petas2.2081111342LSep 1 · 04:55P. Cyrnek1.5711124113K. Petas2.258101191WAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik1.831110111562K. Petas1.831312613113
Upcoming Matches
T. Spanik
Sep 8 · 03:45T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—Sep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.75P. David1.40—Sep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 06:55T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 07:45T. Spanik—J. Folwarski——Sep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik—K. Kolodziej——Sep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 11:40T. Spanik1.73K. Wloczko2.00—Sep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—
K. Petas
Nothing scheduled
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