TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13047601
Played Aug 31Finished
Tibor Spanik
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511115611611––
Jakub Kosowski
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:35 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Kosowski to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Jakub Kosowski below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 66 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jakub Kosowski at 58.1%
66 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 9–10 Jakub Kosowski Tibor Spanik has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:35What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kosowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-10 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1850 vs Kosowski 1877
Kosowski
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 80% vs Kosowski 40%
Spanik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 60% vs Kosowski 30%
Spanik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik +2 · Kosowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kosowski) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 2.25 / Kosowski 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kosowski)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13047601
Spanik2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 74 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back29% 20 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Kosowski1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 282 of 434
Up 2–0, closes it94% 132 of 140
Up 1–0, closes it85% 219 of 258
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpanik5wins
AwayKosowski5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanik100%4 of 4
AwayKosowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik4Kosowski6n = 10Kosowski took 6 of 10
S2Spanik7Kosowski3n = 10Spanik took 7 of 10
S3Spanik5Kosowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Spanik4Kosowski5n = 9Kosowski took 5 of 9
S5Spanik3Kosowski3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpanikKosowskiS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.342.0−1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikKosowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 396 vs 748 / 126756.1%59%222 / 396 vs 748 / 1267Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosowskiSpanik 2.25/Kosowski 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Kosowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kosowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 6 · 11:40T. Spanik—111198113J. Kosowski—97111182
WAug 6 · 04:55T. Spanik—11117113J. Kosowski—611151
WAug 2 · 12:55T. Spanik—7101112113J. Kosowski—111281092
LAug 2 · 04:55T. Spanik—510111132J. Kosowski—111279113
LJul 20 · 09:20T. Spanik—81112512J. Kosowski—1191011113
LJul 20 · 05:40T. Spanik—3114161J. Kosowski—11611183
LJun 2 · 14:30T. Spanik—91111242J. Kosowski—115811113
WJun 2 · 07:40T. Spanik—1141312123J. Kosowski—4111510102
WJun 1 · 14:05T. Spanik—1111113J. Kosowski—6680
LJun 1 · 07:15T. Spanik—611931J. Kosowski—11411113
T. Spanik10
WAug 31 · 13:45T. Spanik1.61101111113M. Jadczyk2.20123431LAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik1.831110111562K. Petas1.831312613113WAug 31 · 11:15T. Spanik1.731111113K. Wloczko2.007540LAug 31 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.671110711113T. Spanik2.1081211942LAug 31 · 09:20T. Spanik1.5711771182K. Strowski2.25511114113WAug 31 · 08:30T. Spanik1.73811911113K. Petas2.0011811762LAug 31 · 06:55T. Spanik1.7371111161M. Jadczyk2.0011135183WAug 31 · 04:10T. Spanik1.4011114113D. Kosmal2.751151241WAug 31 · 03:00T. Spanik1.671111113K. Wloczko2.109950LAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150
J. Kosowski10
WSep 7 · 10:50K. Kolodziej3.259780J. Kosowski1.331111113WSep 7 · 09:20S. Kolasa2.1011760J. Kosowski1.671311113WSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871WSep 7 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.831212113P. David1.83101090WSep 7 · 04:10S. Kolasa2.386270J. Kosowski1.531111113WSep 7 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.281211133G. Poliniewicz3.50107110LSep 1 · 13:45J. Kosowski1.731145111K. Petas2.0071111133LSep 1 · 12:30J. Kosowski1.368680K. Kolodziej3.001111113WSep 1 · 11:15J. Kosowski1.2013714113K. Glazowski4.3311111291WAug 31 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.671110711113T. Spanik2.1081211942
Upcoming Matches
T. Spanik
Sep 8 · 03:45T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—Sep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.75P. David1.40—Sep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 06:55T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 07:45T. Spanik—J. Folwarski——Sep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik—K. Kolodziej——Sep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Sep 8 · 11:40T. Spanik1.73K. Wloczko2.00—Sep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—
J. Kosowski
Sep 7 · 12:05J. Kosowski2.25J. Folwarski1.57—Sep 7 · 13:20J. Kosowski1.73J. Zandecki2.00—Sep 7 · 14:35J. Kosowski2.20P. David1.61—Sep 8 · 03:00J. Kosowski2.20P. David1.61—Sep 8 · 04:10J. Kosowski2.25J. Folwarski1.57—Sep 8 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.67A. Wiecek2.10—Sep 8 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.73T. Spanik2.00—Sep 8 · 08:30J. Kosowski2.10M. Olejnik1.67—Sep 8 · 09:20J. Kosowski1.67A. Wiecek2.10—Sep 8 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.73T. Spanik2.00—
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