TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13047651
Played Aug 31Finished
Tibor Spanik
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115711711114811
Karol Strowski
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:36 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Karol Strowski below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 86 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 58.9%
86 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 2–2 Karol Strowski Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:36What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Spanik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1840 vs Strowski 1820
Spanik
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 60% vs Strowski 100%
Strowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 60% vs Strowski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik +1 · Strowski +5
Strowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Spanik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strowski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 1.57 / Strowski 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Spanik)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13047651
Spanik1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 147 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it92% 72 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it77% 108 of 141
Strowski2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 75 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back25% 28 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSpanik2wins
AwayStrowski2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayStrowski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik1Strowski3n = 4Strowski took 3 of 4
S2Spanik2Strowski2n = 4split evenly
S3Spanik4Strowski0n = 4Spanik took 4 of 4
S4Spanik1Strowski3n = 4Strowski took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSpanikStrowskiSpanik − StrowskiBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match42.241.0+1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikStrowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 399 vs 830 / 140555.9%59.1%223 / 399 vs 830 / 1405Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikSpanik 1.57/Strowski 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Strowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 20 · 10:00T. Spanik—117117113K. Strowski—71191182
LJun 20 · 13:20T. Spanik—971191K. Strowski—11117113
WJun 20 · 10:50T. Spanik—81111113K. Strowski—115791
LMay 5 · 11:55T. Spanik—91111772K. Strowski—116711113
T. Spanik10
WAug 31 · 13:45T. Spanik1.61101111113M. Jadczyk2.20123431LAug 31 · 12:30T. Spanik1.831110111562K. Petas1.831312613113WAug 31 · 11:15T. Spanik1.731111113K. Wloczko2.007540LAug 31 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.671110711113T. Spanik2.1081211942WAug 31 · 08:30T. Spanik1.73811911113K. Petas2.0011811762LAug 31 · 06:55T. Spanik1.7371111161M. Jadczyk2.0011135183LAug 31 · 05:40T. Spanik2.25511661J. Kosowski1.5711511113WAug 31 · 04:10T. Spanik1.4011114113D. Kosmal2.751151241WAug 31 · 03:00T. Spanik1.671111113K. Wloczko2.109950LAug 30 · 14:10M. Gawlas3.001211173T. Spanik1.36109150
K. Strowski10
WSep 7 · 10:05K. Strowski1.43119116123M. Sklensky2.60911511102LSep 7 · 09:00K. Strowski2.5091312101K. Wloczko1.44111510123LSep 1 · 19:40K. Strowski2.0091171152L. Jarocki1.73117119113LSep 1 · 18:30K. Strowski2.00781181K. Glazowski1.7311117113WSep 1 · 17:20K. Strowski1.611111113M. Sklensky2.208470LSep 1 · 16:05A. Spychala2.20111278113K. Strowski1.61910111162WSep 1 · 15:25K. Strowski1.2811116113M. Olbrycht3.50861181WSep 1 · 14:35P. Cyrnek1.40117811102K. Strowski2.75811115123WSep 1 · 13:20K. Strowski1.91111311183K. Glazowski1.8013119161LSep 1 · 12:05K. Petas1.50119116113K. Strowski2.5091161142
Upcoming Matches
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