TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13053408
Played Sep 1Finished
Karol Strowski
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911117711119511
Lukasz Jarocki
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Strowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKarol Strowski above · Lukasz Jarocki below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 92 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Karol Strowski at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Karol Strowski 68–69 Lukasz Jarocki Karol Strowski has won 68 of their 137 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:38What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jarocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
68-69 in 137
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strowski 1836 vs Jarocki 1728
Strowski
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strowski 60% vs Jarocki 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strowski 60% vs Jarocki 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strowski -1 · Jarocki +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jarocki) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrowski 2.00 / Jarocki 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jarocki)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13053408
Strowski2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 77 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back25% 29 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Jarocki1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 160 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it93% 92 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it78% 120 of 153
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrowski6wins
AwayJarocki4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderStrowski leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrowski80%4 of 5
AwayJarocki60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strowski5Jarocki5n = 10split evenly
S2Strowski5Jarocki5n = 10split evenly
S3Strowski4Jarocki6n = 10Jarocki took 6 of 10
S4Strowski8Jarocki2n = 10Strowski took 8 of 10
S5Strowski3Jarocki3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrowskiJarockiS − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.143.0+0.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrowskiJarockiBasisWin rate · lifetime832 / 1415 vs 847 / 151358.8%56%832 / 1415 vs 847 / 1513Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JarockiStrowski 2.00/Jarocki 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jarocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jarocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 16:05K. Strowski—611101162L. Jarocki—115125113
WJul 28 · 17:20K. Strowski—117811113L. Jarocki—91111762
LJul 13 · 18:30K. Strowski—101181152L. Jarocki—128117113
LMay 28 · 10:20K. Strowski—12712252L. Jarocki—10111011113
WMay 26 · 12:20K. Strowski—61512143L. Jarocki—111310121
WMay 14 · 13:10K. Strowski—711811113L. Jarocki—11511952
WMay 13 · 10:20K. Strowski—111111113L. Jarocki—813561
WMay 7 · 09:05K. Strowski—115711113L. Jarocki—71111792
LApr 23 · 19:45K. Strowski—681181L. Jarocki—11119113
WApr 21 · 17:25K. Strowski—12115113L. Jarocki—1081151
K. Strowski10
LSep 1 · 18:30K. Strowski2.00781181K. Glazowski1.7311117113WSep 1 · 17:20K. Strowski1.611111113M. Sklensky2.208470LSep 1 · 16:05A. Spychala2.20111278113K. Strowski1.61910111162WSep 1 · 15:25K. Strowski1.2811116113M. Olbrycht3.50861181WSep 1 · 14:35P. Cyrnek1.40117811102K. Strowski2.75811115123WSep 1 · 13:20K. Strowski1.91111311183K. Glazowski1.8013119161LSep 1 · 12:05K. Petas1.50119116113K. Strowski2.5091161142WSep 1 · 10:50K. Kolodziej1.91911111172K. Strowski1.80111377113LSep 1 · 09:20J. Kosowski1.3011116113K. Strowski3.40491171WAug 31 · 19:40K. Strowski1.8381111143K. Glazowski1.831198121
L. Jarocki10
WSep 1 · 18:50A. Spychala2.207680L. Jarocki1.611111113LSep 1 · 18:05L. Jarocki1.7361370M. Olbrycht2.001115113WSep 1 · 16:30L. Jarocki1.83881111113M. Sklensky1.8311115492LSep 1 · 15:45K. Glazowski1.73118167113L. Jarocki2.00911141162WSep 1 · 14:35L. Jarocki1.911115118113D. Prokopcov1.8061761162WSep 1 · 13:00L. Jarocki1.551211113K. Wisniewski2.3010770LSep 1 · 11:45L. Jarocki1.90811981M. Sklensky1.8011511113LSep 1 · 10:05L. Jarocki1.808950A. Spychala1.851111113WSep 1 · 09:00L. Jarocki1.7071111113D. Kosmal2.00118961LAug 31 · 20:30M. Sklensky1.83114415133L. Jarocki1.8311121113112
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